World Overpopulation Awareness

U.S.: The Punanny State

Click here to see Jon Stewart make fun of Congress which convened an all-male contraception panel in an effort to find balance between religious liberty and the realities of the secular world. The panel's refusal to include a woman seems to indicate fear of discussing things having to do with 'punanny': i.e. the female genitals; sexual intercourse

Obama Stimulus Turns Three: What Has it Achieved?

It has been three years since President Obama signed into law the stimulus to U.S. economy which, it was claimed, would "create or save" up to 3.5 million jobs, unleash "a new wave of innovation, activity and construction cross America," ignite spending by businesses and consumers and bring "real and lasting change for generations to come."

Instead the unemployment rate has remained at 8.3%, unchanged from February 2009 to January 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Obama's economists had initially predicted that with the stimulus, unemployment would stay below 8%.

Instead the number of workers who have been unable to find a job in 27 months or more has shot up 83%, with their ranks now at 5.5 million.

The civilian labor force has shrunk by 126,000. In past recoveries, the labor force climbed an average of more than 3 million over comparable time periods.

The share of adults in the labor force - either looking or working - is at 63.7%, having dropped 3% — also highly unusual in a recovery. This is a low not seen since the middle of the very deep 1981-82 recession, when fewer women were in the work force. A lower participation rate makes the unemployment rate look better.

Obama's latest budget plan has called for still another round of stimulus spending, at $350 billion over the next four years, for what is labeled "short-term measures for jobs growth."

Median annual household income has fallen 7% below where it was in February 2009, according to the Sentier Research Household Income Index.

The national debt is up $4.5 trillion, or 41%, according to the U.S. Treasury, putting the national debt at $15.4 trillion, larger than the entire U.S. economy.

The deficit for fiscal year 2009 totaled $1.4 trillion. Obama's proposed deficit for 2012 is $1.3 trillion, which would mark the fourth year of deficits topping $1 trillion.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has climbed only 6% between beginning 2009 and ending 2011, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Victory in Sight for Revolution Over Female Genital Mutilation

Thousands of rural communities across Africa, which have practiced FGM for centuries, are starting to abandon the tradition in response to grass-roots education programmes. There is talk of eradication within two generations - something unimaginable even five years ago.

In 2011 2,000 communities in countries including Sudan, Somalia and Egypt rejected the practice.

FGM is a harmful social convention in which part, or all, of a girl's external genitals are removed. Each year around three million girls - 8,000 a day - face FGM. An estimated 130 million girls and women are living with painful complications.

FGM occurs in 28 African countries, in the Middle East and parts of Asia including Malaysia. Girls are generally aged between five and 11; most girls are cut without anaesthetic using an unsterilised blade. Traditionally, an uncut girl is considered unsuitable for marriage and maybe rejected by her community.

The NGO Tostan, a community-based human rights organisation originating in Senegal, has an FGM abandonment success rate of 77% and is working in eight other African countries. It involves whole communities, including the men, in rejecting the practice. The first community rejected the practice in 1997.

Latest figures from the UN show that 8,000 communities have abandoned both FGM and forced marriage. This includes 5,315 in Senegal, 670 in Sudan, 600 in Guinea, and 92 in Djibouti.

Only 62% of 15 to 19-year-olds have been subjected to FGM in Ethiopia, compared to an 81% rate among 35 to 39-year-olds.

Only half of the $40m requested in 2008 by the UNFPA and UNICEF for Acceleration of the Abandonment of FGM has been received.

In the most extreme form of FGM, the entire external genitals are cut away. The wound left will be sewn up, with only a tiny hole left for menstrual blood and urine. Around the time of her wedding, a young woman will be cut open, just enough for penetrative sex. She is also further cut to give birth, then re-sewn.

The War on Women

by Brian Dixon, vice president for media and government relations at Population Connection

It seems that no aspect of women's health care is immune from right-wing hysteria. Breast exams for poor women? Why, that's an opportunity to attack Planned Parenthood. Birth control coverage without co-pays? That's their chance to brand the Obama administration as an enemy of religious freedom.

Opponents have disingenuously framed their objections to the contraceptive coverage requirement as coming from concerns over religious liberty, rather than as overt opposition to birth control. In doing so, they have made statements that are offensive, dismissive and grotesquely out of touch with the real needs and day-to-day lives of women.

One pundit dismissed women's need for birth control as "beside the point." Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb., opined on a talk-radio show that birth control was "unrelated to the basic needs of health care." The current leader -- according to a recent national poll -- in the Republican race for president, Rick Santorum, said that the birth control requirement is a step toward "the guillotine." And, in an unwitting display of irony, the bishop of Phoenix said that the decision is an attempt to turn Catholics into "second-class citizens."

Women's health is not beside the point: It is the central point. Every American woman should have the same access to affordable contraceptives. The current rule will save the average American woman some $600 in out-of-pocket health care costs. For families living paycheck to paycheck, struggling to pay for day care or get their car fixed, this could make all the difference.

Birth control is basic health care. In the United States today, 24 women will die for every 100,000 live births, the highest maternal mortality rate in the developed world.

Nearly every American woman will use contraceptives at some point in her life, including 98% of Catholic women. Nobody seems interested in their beliefs and their liberty. More than 50% of Catholics support giving women employed by Catholic-affiliated hospitals and universities the same contraceptive coverage as everyone else.

A respectfully balanced compromise has already been struck: Explicitly religious employers are exempt from the new requirement.

The same opponents of this policy are working tirelessly to bar Planned Parenthood clinics from reimbursement with public funds; pass legislation to end all public funding for family planning programs in the United States and overseas; reinstate the Global Gag Rule -- essentially an international version of the Planned Parenthood ban; and to cut off aid to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) for its work to increase access to contraceptives and end harmful traditional practices in the poorest countries in the world.

It's All About the Wedding: How Preventing Child Marriage Can Help Eradicate Poverty

American girls are lucky to grow up in a culture where girls can choose who and when they'll marry, that values women's contributions to the workplace and society; where motherhood is something a girl can aspire to (or not) when she's ready, not while she's still a child herself.

But in the developing world 25,000 child brides get married every day, affecting 10 million girls every year. In the developing world, one in three girls under the age of 18 is married, one in seven is under 15 and it's not uncommon for 10 year-olds to marry men three times their age. Ask any girl's mother if early marriage and sex with an older man is what she hopes for her daughter and her answer might be similar to author Jeanne Faulkner's: "Oh, hell no." They just don't have any choice.

As an advocate with CARE, the global humanitarian organization, Jeanne Faulkner lobbied hard in 2010 and 2011 for the passage of International Protecting Girls by Preventing Child Marriage Act, but the measure fell short in the House and failed. Some readers thought this legislation reflected American arrogance and disrespected the rights of other countries to live however they choose. But, this legislation would have protected the basic human rights of girls in countries where women are powerless. It would have gone a long way to eradicate poverty and protect America's foreign affairs investments.

This year the act has been reintroduced as S. 414 and H.R.3357, providing Americans with a second chance to right a wrong. With 56 co-sponsors in the House, and strong support in the Senate, it would:

* Express the sense of Congress that child marriage is a human rights violation, and undermines U.S. investments in foreign assistance to promote education and skills building for girls, reduce maternal and child mortality, reduce maternal illness, halt the transmission of HIV/AIDS, prevent gender-based violence, and reduce poverty.

* Authorize the president to provide assistance, including through multilateral, nongovernmental and faith-based organizations, to prevent child marriage in developing countries, and to promote education, health, economic, social, and legal empowerment of girls and women.

From an investment standpoint, preventing child marriage only makes sense. If our money goes to countries where girls get married, aren't educated, have limited job skills or control over their family size, health, finances and their human rights aren't protected, then we're not getting full value on our investment.

When a girl in a developing country gets married, she drops out of school, quits working and has children. Children raised by uneducated, unemployed mothers grow up uneducated and unemployed too. Adolescent girls are five times more likely to die in childbirth than adult women. The children she leaves behind are 3-10 times more likely to die within the next two years.

Eliminating child marriage will help girls, women and families rise above poverty. Without a basic education, girls are clueless about health issues that could save their lives and the lives of their children.

Last week the World Economic Forum highlighted the movement led by The Elders to end child marriage. Chaired by Archbishop Desmond Tutu, The Elders is an independent group of global leaders brought together by Nelson Mandela, working for peace and human rights. Mary Robinson (the first woman president of Ireland and former U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights), Jimmy Carter (former president of the United States), Kofi Anaan (former U.N. Secretary-General and Nobel Peace Laureat) and Gro Brundtland (first woman Prime Minister of Norway; a medical doctor who champions health as a human right) are among The Elders championing the end of child marriage as a human rights violation.

Ask your senator to support passage of the Preventing Child Marriage Act. Support organizations like CARE who are on the ground in developing countries during times of crisis and stability, helping the world's most vulnerable citizens help themselves out of poverty.

Population is 'our Biggest Challenge' Says Government Chief Scientist Sir John Beddington

The next world population milestone of 8 billion will come perhaps as early as 2025, and 9 billion by 2050 - yet we remain reluctant to debate the issue.

Yet there is a more immediate statistic that 'frightens' the UK government's chief scientist: 1 billion extra people in the next 13 years.

At a joint WWF and Royal Geographical Society event last week, John Beddington told an audience that half of that population increase would come from Asia and most of the other half from Africa. He said Africa's population would grow 'frighteningly fast' from 1 billion today to 1.5 billion by 2025-2030, according to the UN

Population is 'our biggest challenge' as it exacerbates existing problems over access to water and other resources.

Much of the population increase in Africa and Asia will see more people living in and migrating to areas of environmental risk, such as coastal cities, which as the recent Foresight report on Migration and Environmental Change points out, will put more at risk from flooding and rising sea levels.

Sir David Attenborough calls silence over the issue an 'absurd taboo'.

Philospher Philip Cafaro, author of 'Climate ethics and population policy', suggests both have been fearful of wading into a host of contentious ethical issues, including family planning, abortion and immigration. The result has been limited progress in tackling ecological limits to growth and a failure to embrace one of the two primary drivers of climate change, along with consumption. He cites one paper estimating that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of emission reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change.

Author Fred Pearce argues that population growth is under control in all but a few exceptions and heading for long-term declines. As such it is a needless distraction from the issue of overconsumption, the major driver of environmental destruction.

'What is the greater threat to poor people in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Niger, Pakistan or India? Global climate change or national population growth?' Professor Cafaro asks.

"Perhaps we need not rank these two threats, since, as the example suggests, they magnify one another's potential harms. More people consuming water and longer, more frequent droughts = water shortages in Niger and Pakistan. More people living on marginal lands and harsher, more frequent storms = more deaths and environmental refugees from Bangladesh and Indonesia. Those worried about alleviating human suffering in the developing world cannot avoid population issues."

But Fred Pearce argues "Rising consumption today far outstrips the rising headcount as a threat to the planet. And most of the extra consumption has been in rich countries that have long since given up adding substantial numbers to their population, while most of the remaining population growth is in countries with a very small impact on the planet. By almost any measure you choose, a small proportion of the world's people take the majority of the world's resources and produce the majority of its pollution."

"The carbon emissions of one American today are equivalent to those of around four Chinese, 20 Indians, 30 Pakistanis, 40 Nigerians or 250 Ethiopians. The truth is that the population bomb is being defused round the world. But the consumption bomb is still primed and ever more dangerous."

Professor Cafaro replies "Cutting consumption is proving a tall order, with a global economy designed to provide ever more. Even amongst environmentalists we largely live like our fellow citizens." "'Who's to say that 60 or 65 million is the optimum population of the UK, or 315 million is best for the US? It seems to me we have good evidence that those numbers are ecologically unsustainable." These limits may even one day mean constraints on population and consumption.

"For many people telling them what kind of car to drive or how many children to have will seem an intolerable infringement of their rights. But then we should move expeditiously to put noncoercive or less coercive incentives in place that achieve the desired ends. If these prove insufficient, then we may have to accept stricter limits on our freedom to consume or to have children."

Children Are Being Let Down by Lack of Family Planning

The recent Save the Children forecast on child hunger highlights the human cost of the world's failure to invest in reproductive health. The report forecast that half a billion children could grow up physically and mentally stunted over the next 15 years because they do not have enough to eat.

Simon Ross, chief executive of Population Matters, commented: "This report indicates the human cost of the current lack of family planning provision. Resource prices, including food, are rising, driven by growing human numbers and global industrialisation. This will increasingly put pressure on the world's poorest. Governments and the international community should put reproductive health at the heart of their development and sustainability programmes."

There are currently 215 million women with an unmet need for family planning, according to the Guttmacher Institute. These numbers could well rise substantially as the number of people entering their childbearing years continues to increase, particularly in Africa.

A Life Free From Hunger

One in four of the world's children are stunted. In developing countries this figure is as high as one in three. That means their body and brain has failed to develop properly because of malnutrition.

Malnutrition is an underlying cause of the death of 2.6 million children each year - one-third of the global total of children's deaths.

Progress has been very slow, falling only 0.6% per year from 1990 to 2010.

80% of stunted children live in just 20 countries.

48% of children in India are stunted.

The poorest children In the poorest countries are twice as likely to be chronically malnourished than their richest counterparts.

Nigeria (1.6 million additional) and Tanzania (450,000 additional) and five other countries are expected to see an increase in numbers of stunted children by 2015. 450 million children will be expected to be affected by stunting in the next 15 years. Adults who were malnourished as children earn at least 20% less on average than those who weren't.

While the world has been experiencing years of financial turmoil, pervasive long-term malnutrition is slowly eroding the foundations of the global economy by destroying the potential of millions of children.

A combination of global trends - climate change, volatile food prices, economic uncertainty and demographic shifts - is putting future progress on tackling malnutrition at risk. By mid-2013, it will already be too late to make a difference to the last generation of children who will reach their second birthday - a crucial nutrition milestone - by the 2015 deadline for the eight Millennium Development Goals, six of which are dependent in part on tackling malnutrition.

Malnutrition is an underlying cause of more than a third of children's deaths - 2.6 million every year.

Long-term malnutrition causes devastating and irreversible damage. Lack of nutritious food, coupled with infection and illness, means their bodies and brains don't develop properly. Most are too short for their age, they are likely to enroll at school later and to do less well academically. Iodine deficiency, for example, affects one-third of schoolchildren in developing countries and is associated with a loss of 10-15 IQ points. Stunted children are predicted to earn an average of 20% less when they become adults.

It's estimated that 2-3% of the national income of a country can be lost to malnutrition.

If current trends continue, the lives of more than 450 million children globally will be affected by stunting in the next 15 years.

The world has enough food for everyone, so putting an end to the hunger and malnutrition crisis is the right thing to do.

Improving child nutrition and reducing levels of child mortality can lead to smaller families and more sustainable societies. When children are healthier and more likely to survive, and when parents have access to voluntary family planning methods, many parents will choose to have fewer children, further apart, and to invest in the children who now survive. An added benefit is the reduction in population growth over the long term.

In 2008 the Lancet medical journal identified a package of 13 direct interventions - such as vitamin A and zinc supplements, iodised salt, and the promotion of healthy behaviour, including handwashing, exclusive breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices- that were proven to have an impact on the nutrition and health of children and mothers. This cost-effective and affordable package could prevent the deaths of almost 2 million children under five in the 36 countries that are home to 90% of the world's malnourished children, but public policy decisions and chronic under-investment in the health services needed to deliver them have hampered success.

Fortification (adding vitamins and minerals) of staple foods during production or through breeding crops that are more nutritious can benefit an entire population. Fortified food products for 6-24-month-old and the addition of micronutrient powders to traditional foods both show promise.

At a cost of just over US$1 per person per year, the World Bank has estimated that more than 4 billion people would be able to benefit from access to fortified wheat, iron, complementary food and micronutrient powders.

Poverty is one of the main underlying causes of malnutrition. A significant proportion of families in communities in Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Kenya could not afford to feed their families a nutritious diet even if they spent all of their income on food. Providing cash or food can be the best solution.

The global system by which food is produced, distributed and consumed is currently failing to meet the nutritional needs of much of the world's population. Investing in small farmers and female farmers is key - three-quarters of Africa's malnourished children live on small farms and 43% of agricultural work is carried out by women. Success depends on ensuring local markets are accessible and functioning; on improving education about nutrition; and on investing in better research and evidence. This challenge is especially urgent at a time when the world's food system is under threat from global trends, such as population growth and climate change.

The number of children not making it to their fifth birthday has fallen from 12 million in 1990 to 7.6 million in 2011. Momentum is building - in 2011 world leaders made critical progress on immunisation by pledging to vaccinate 250 million children by 2015, saving 4 million lives, and 40 countries committed to filling the 3.5 million health workers gap. At the same time we must accelerate efforts to improve nutrition, which holds the key to further progress in saving children's lives. a life free from hunger

• Of countries with reliable data, Madagascar has the highest stunting rate, with over half of children being stunted.

• The World Bank predicts an increase in poverty as families face a triple squeeze from falling incomes and remittances, rising costs, and shrinking public expenditure, including aid.

Save the Children works in more than 120 countries.

U.S.: Candidates on Contraception

Santorum:

One of the things I will talk about that no President has talked about before is I think the dangers of contraception in this country, the whole sexual libertine idea. Many in the Christian faith have said, "Well, that's okay. Contraception's okay."

It's not okay because it's a license to do things in the sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be. They're supposed to be within marriage, they are supposed to be for purposes that are, yes, conjugal, but also , but also procreative. That's the perfect way that a sexual union should happen. We take any part of that out, we diminish the act. And if you can take one part out that's not for purposes of procreation, that's not one of the reasons, then you diminish this very special bond between men and women, so why can't you take other parts of that out? And all of a sudden, it becomes deconstructed to the point where it's simply pleasure. And that's certainly a part of it—and it's an important part of it, don't get me wrong—but there's a lot of things we do for pleasure, and this is special, and it needs to be seen as special.

Again, I know most Presidents don't talk about those things, and maybe people don't want us to talk about those things, but I think it's important that you are who you are. I'm not running for preacher. I'm not running for pastor, but these are important public policy issues. These how profound impact on the health of our society.

http://swampland.time.com/2012/02/14/rick-santorum-wants-to-fight-the-dangers-of-contraception/#ixzz1mUrlXNQR

Ron Paul:

Last year, Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul introduced a bill in Congress that would allow states to ban contraception if they choose.

Paul's "We the People Act," which he introduced in 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2011, explicitly forbids federal courts and the Supreme Court of the United States from ruling on the constitutionality of a variety of state and local laws. That includes, among other things, "any claim based upon the right of privacy, including any such claim related to any issue of sexual practices, orientation, or reproduction." The bill would let states write laws forbidding abortion, the use of contraceptives, or consensual gay sex, for example.

http://motherjones.com/politics/2012/02/ron-paul-birth-control

Ron Paul is not a true Libertarian. He is anti-abortion and anti-contraception.

As Ayn Rand said: An embryo has no rights. Rights do not pertain to a potential, only to an actual being. A child cannot acquire any rights until it is born. The living take precedence over the not-yet-living (or the unborn).

Abortion is a moral right—which should be left to the sole discretion of the woman involved; morally, nothing other than her wish in the matter is to be considered. Who can conceivably have the right to dictate to her what disposition she is to make of the functions of her own body?

Too bad, I like his other ideals. But if he is going to twist this one ideal, who knows what he will do with the others. It is not so simple after all.

There is no way he is going to win this one. 98% of American women have used or are using contraception, and that includes 97% of Catholic women. How would you like it if you were forced, by law, to preserve all of your sperm? That's where the Mississippi Personhood law is headed.

Gingrich

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich acknowledged on Thursday that his support for a "fetal personhood" constitutional amendment would make some forms of birth control illegal.

Earlier in the week, the candidate had signed a pledge (PDF) from the group Personhood USA that declared he would "support a human life amendment to the Constitution, and endorse legislation to make clear the 14th Amendment protections apply to unborn children."

At a campaign event in Fort Dodge, Iowa Thursday, a young woman asked Gingrich what this meant for birth control.

http://smd12364.newsvine.com/_news/2011/12/17/9517341-gingrich-post-conception-birth-control-should-be-illegal

Romney

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) told Fox News host Mike Huckabee this weekend that he would support an amendment to his state's constitution to define life as beginning at conception, which would outlaw abortion and potentially many forms of contraception as well. Noting that the state supreme court forced the inclusion of abortion coverage in Romney's universal health care law, the GOP presidential front-runner said the only way to undo the decision would be a constitutional amendment. Asked if he would support such a move, Romney replied, "absolutely":

HUCKABEE: Would you have supported a constitutional amendment that would have established definition of life beginning of life at conception?

ROMNEY: Absolutely.

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2011/10/03/334190/mitt-romeny-constitutional-amendment-abortioneption/?mobile=nc

Texas Governor Perry

Perry has taken large amounts of funding away from Planned Parenthood, an organization that provides most of the birth control to low-income individuals. Whether or not you think the poor deserve free birth control, it is very poor use of public funds to limit access to pregnancy prevention while spending much larger amounts to pay for Medicaid births.

http://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2011/09/medical-legacy-rick-perry.html

Energy Poverty Remains a Global Challenge for the Future

The UN General Assembly has designated 2012 as the "International Year of Sustainable Energy for All". Even though the world has seen massive gains in access to electricity over the last two decades, governments and development organizations must continue to invest in electrification to achieve critical health, environmental, and livelihood outcomes, according to the Worldwatch Institute.

About 2 billion people gained access to electricity between 1990 and 2008, but IEA estimates that more than 1.3 billion people still lack access to electricity, another 1 billion have unreliable access, according to the UN

Lighting, heating, refrigeration, cooking, water pumping, and other services are essential for reducing poverty, improving health and education, and increasing incomes, say report authors Michael Renner and Matthew Lucky. "It will be difficult to achieve a number of the UN's Millennium Development Goals without improving energy access." Combating HIV malaria and other diseases and eradicating poverty and hunger are among the UN goals, targeted at 2015.

At least 2.7 billion people, and possibly more than 3 billion, lack access to modern fuels for cooking and heating. They rely instead firewood, charcoal, manure, and crop residues that can emit harmful indoor air pollutants when burned. These pollutants cause nearly 2 million premature deaths worldwide each year, an estimated 44% of them in children. Their usage also contributes to environmental impacts including forest and woodland degradation, soil erosion, and black carbon emissions that contribute to global climate change.

In sub-Saharan Africa, the rural electrification rate is 14%, while it is 60% in urban areas.

Worldwatch President Robert Engelman says "Access to electricity needs to be based wherever possible on low-carbon energy, since we need to preserve a climate conducive to health and well-being."

Improved cook stoves can can double or triple the efficiency of traditional fuels, reducing indoor air pollutants and saving time and money, leaving people with more disposable income and allowing them to invest more in their futures.

68 developing-country governments have adopted formal targets for improving access to electricity; 17 countries have targets for providing access to modern fuels, and 11 have targets for providing access to improved cook stoves.

Average annual investments will need to rise to $48 billion to provide universal modern energy access, the IEA reports.

The largest populations lacking access to electricity are in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. These two regions account for more than 80% of all people worldwide lacking electricity access.

Haiti has only 39% of its population with access to electricity and 54% of the population of developing Asia relies on traditional biomass fuels.

Who Guidance Confirms Safety of Hormonal Contraception for Women at Risk of HIV Or Living with HIV

A recent meeting of multidisciplinary experts, organized by WHO in Geneva, assessed available evidence on the use of hormonal contraceptives and HIV and concluded that women, including those at risk of or living with HIV, can safely continue to use hormonal contraceptives to prevent pregnancy.

EngenderHealth, with 70 years of experience in ensuring clients' rights and improving access to quality family planning and reproductive health services, supports the WHO guidance and reccommends to its staff that no restrictions be placed on the use of hormonal contraceptives for women at risk of HIV or living with HIV. There is insufficient evidence of an association between hormonal contraceptive use and HIV risk to warrant any change in this guidance, but they strongly advise women at high risk of HIV who are using progestogen-only injectables to use condoms and other HIV preventive measures. Furthermore, WHO stresses the need for women and couples to have access to a wide range of contraceptive methods and for further research on the relationship between hormonal contraception and HIV to be undertaken.

Women living in places hit hardest by HIV and AIDS—they are at higher risk of contracting HIV and of dying from a pregnancy-related condition.

Because the possibility of a link between hormonal contraceptives and HIV was widely covered in the media worldwide, women must be assured that their method of choice does not put them at undue risk of HIV—and that not using contraception poses the risk of an unplanned pregnancy, which carries another set of potential dangers. Access to hormonal contraceptives must continue to preserve women's health and well-being.

The ability for individuals to make informed choices and voluntary decisions, not only about family planning, but about all aspects of sexual and reproductive health, is a fundamental principle rooted in human rights and underpinning quality care. It means that a wide range of contraceptive methods is available and accessible—including long-acting and permanent options—and that women and couples are counseled about the known risks and benefits of each method.

Engaging men on the importance of sharing responsibilities for family planning and reproductive health—including encouraging them to use condoms for dual protection and to access health care services, including getting tested for HIV—is essential for preventing HIV infection and maintaining strong reproductive health.

Because some 50-85% of women living with HIV do not want to become pregnant, access to voluntary, affordable, and appropriate contraceptive information and services can help women avoid unintended pregnancies and associated health risks, including the risk of vertical transmission.

Women must have a wide choice of family planning methods - when a woman's method of choice is unavailable, she is more likely to forgo contraception altogether. Many modern methods of contraception, including long-acting and permanent methods (LA/PMs), such as the intrauterine device (IUD), are vastly underutilized in Africa, even though women and couples who have decided to space and/or limit their families could benefit greatly from using them.

High Population Density is Greatest Risk Factor for Water-Linked Diseases

When a region's population density is growing, water-associated infectious disease outbreaks are more likely to occur, according to a new global analysis by Ohio State University scientists of economic and environmental conditions that influence the risk for these outbreaks.

About 1,428 water-associated disease outbreaks reported between 1991 and 2008 around the world were analyzed. By combining outbreak records with data on a variety of socio-environmental factors known about the affected regions, the researchers developed a model that can be used to predict risks for water-associated disease outbreaks anywhere in the world.

Of the five different categories of water-associated diseases (category depending on the disease transmission process), population density was a risk factor for all. Prolonged and excessive heat was shown to be a driver of water-related diseases that are transmitted to people by insect bites.

Western Europe, Central Africa, Northern India, Southeast Asia, Latin America and eastern Brazil were targeted as potential "hot spots" at highest risk for future water-associated disease outbreaks ranging from E. coli-related diarrhea to dengue fever.

4% of deaths worldwide - almost 2 million annually - and 5.7% of illnesses around the world are caused by infectious diseases related to unsafe water and sanitation and hygiene problems.

Understanding the socio-environmental factors that affect the risks for water-associated disease outbreaks will help guide policymakers as they prioritize the distribution of health resources around the world, the researchers say.

The model shows how global environmental changes affect outbreak risks, providing early warning and informed policy decisions which are needed because resources are limited.

Among the information included in the Ohio State database were disease-causing agents, such as bacteria or viruses, and their biological characteristics; water's role in disease transmission; disease transmission routes; and details about whether the recorded outbreak represented an emergence or re-emergence of a water-associated disease for a given region. These details were crossed with a socio-environmental database that contained data on population density, global average accumulated temperature, surface area of water bodies, average annual rainfall and per-capita gross domestic product.

Each disease tracked in the database was classified into one of five categories:

* water-borne (such as typhoid and cholera): 70.9%, caused by microorganisms that enter water through fecal contamination and cause infection when humans consume contaminated water.

* water-based (such as schistosomiasis): 2.9%, caused by parasites that spend part of their life in water

* water-related (such as malaria and trypanosomiasis): 12.2%, which need water for breeding of insects that act as vectors in transmitting disease to humans

* water-washed: 6.8%, caused by poor personal or domestic hygiene because no clean water is available; and * water-dispersed (such as Legionella): 7.3%, caused by infectious agents that thrive in water and enter the body through the respiratory tract.

Fewer water-washed diseases occurred in places with larger bodies of surface water, and areas with higher average annual rainfall had fewer outbreaks of water-borne and water-related diseases.

Economic status did not appear to influence risk for water-associated disease outbreaks, at least on a global scale.

The research appears in PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, a journal published by the Public Library of Science.

Listen to Women in Times of War

Leymah Gbowee, a 2011 Nobel peace prize co-laureate and Liberian peace activist, called for recognition of the crucial role and valuable experience of women during times of conflict.

It is women who provide basic services, in the form of food and shelter, to those internally displaced by civil war. It is also women who negotiate and secure safe passage through checkpoints set up by rival factions. And, thirdly, women negotiate peace on behalf of their communities by identifying and validating those that are members of the community. Women carry out these roles in the face of the constant threats of kidnapping, rape and murder.

Yet it is a paradox that women find themselves empowered during times of conflict to the same degree that they are disempowered in times of peace. When conflicts end, women are dismissed as underqualified and so excluded from formal peace negotiations.

Gbowe's efforts as an activist involve encouraging female participation in elections. The fact that conflict affects men and women differently has only recently begun to influence the peacekeeping and development efforts of foreign governments and NGOs. The constant threat of rape directly inhibits the ability of women to carry out their peace-facilitating roles.

Gry Larsen, the Norwegian state secretary for Foreign Affairs, spoke of the importance of gender-appropriate post-conflict development and aid project strategies. It is often a simple considerations of logistics, management and communication. Placing food stores, medical tents and toilets, for example, closer to communities, along well-travelled routes or in open spaces significantly reduces the risk of rape. And information relating to when and where fresh aid supplies will be delivered allow women, who most often collect the aid, to arrange safe travel.

U.S.: Obama Scores a Victory with New Birth Control Solution

Rank-and-file Catholic voters show strong support for the solution to the birth control policy the White House announced on Friday according to a new Public Policy Polling survey conducted on behalf of the Coalition to Protect Women's Health Care. The poll would indicate that the US Conference of Catholic Bishops and Congressional Republicans who oppose the requirement for birth control coverage are significantly out of step with Catholic voters.

According to the poll, 57% of Catholic voters and 59% of Catholic women support the new policy President Obama allowing women who work for religiously-affiliated hospitals and universities to receive coverage for prescription birth control without requiring Catholic institutions to pay for the coverage directly.

29% opposed the policy because it still goes too far in requiring birth control coverage.

5% oppose it because they think Catholic hospitals and universities should be required to pay for this coverage.

Catholic Democrats (80% - 17%) favor the policy by virtually the same margin that Catholic Republicans (16% - 79%) oppose it.

51% say they side with Barack Obama on this issue, while only 38% prefer Mitt Romney's position. 59% of Hispanic Catholic go with Obama.

Congressional Republicans risk losing their majority in the House and squandering any opportunities in the Senate by continuing attacks on the popular birth control benefit.

Soap Operas with a Social Message

Around seven million Kenyans watch the television program "Makutano Junction," a soap opera set in a fictional village. In one episode, a woman's baby dies of malaria because her husband has a drinking problem and denies that the baby is sick, and also does not give her enough money for medicine that the baby needs.

Like traditional soap operas, the stories are full of emotion, conflict and suspense, leaving the audience wondering what will happen next. But these programs deal with crucial social issues. Characters are placed in situations not uncommon to the audience so that viewers will think twice before spending money on alcohol rather than on lifesaving medicine.

There are dozens of such television and radio shows around the world, from North India to South Africa, shows that tightly weave social themes into entertaining narratives, a technique often referred to as "entertainment-education."

Fictional characters that model positive or negative behaviors are developed by local writers, and through their stories and struggles, audiences learn about issues ranging from domestic abuse to personal bankruptcy. These shows usually air during prime time to entire households.

For thousands of years ancient myths, parables and Aesop's fables have been used to teach valuable lessons or pass on cultural values between generations. The first use of educational messages on television originated with a Peruvian telenovela called "Simplemente María" ("Simply Maria"), which aired in 1969. The show, which ran five nights a week for two years, followed the story of María, a humble farmer who migrated to the city and began working as a maid. Through hard work and determination, she learned how to read and sew, and eventually became a famous fashion designer. The show became so popular that when María married her literacy teacher Esteban on the show, 10,000 fans gathered outside the church where the wedding sequence was being shot, dressed in their Sunday best and ready with gifts for the "newlyweds." Enrollment in literacy classes shot through the roof soon after the show aired, as did sales of Singer sewing machines.

Simplemente María inspired Mexican television writer-producer-director Miguel Sabido to enlarge on the idea.

Sabido-inspired soaps have three basic character types: positive, negative and "transitional" characters. The transitional character - the one with whom the audience is meant to identify - endures the most twists of fate and is most easily swayed by others. When the transitional character "hangs out with a good character, she gets rewarded, and when she hangs out with a bad character … she ends up with unprotected sex in the back of a car."

Some, though not all, have resulted in documented changes in behavior. Regular viewers of a long-running South African television series "Soul City" - with 12 million viewers - are almost four times as likely to use condoms than others. In Saint Lucia, the radio drama "After the Pleasure" became so popular that producers had to set up a separate helpline for people requesting information on family planning.

Soap operas have many characters and intersecting plotlines, making it possible to tackle multiple issues simultaneously. They can broach issues that would otherwise be taboo, as it is often more acceptable to discuss things like unwanted pregnancy through the guise of a fictional third party. Some producers have even started talk shows to gossip about a soap's most recent episode and ask experts sensitive questions.

Successful socially conscious soaps usually concern big human issues like sexuality, violence or substance abuse, while trying to create drama out of a topic like nutrition would not not easy."

Lindsey Wahlstrom, PCI Media Impact's communications manager. says "The drama will always relate around the relationships between characters, never about the issue itself." ... “You don't think, This [soap opera] is about deforestation. You think, Will Felipe and Elena get together at the end of this?"

Funding of educational soaps can come from selling advertising or from financing from governments or international donors like USAID Some of these funding sources have restrictions. USAID has a restriction on mentioning abortions.

U.S.: About My 'Spilled Semen' Amendment to Oklahoma's Personhood Bill

This language was to be inserted as an amendment to Oklahoma's Personhood Bill: "provided, however, any action in which a man ejaculates or otherwise deposits semen anywhere but in a woman's vagina shall be interpreted and construed as an action against an unborn child."

Constance Johnson is a woman and a 31-year veteran of the legislative process in Oklahoma. She has received overwhelmingly positive responses from men and women in Oklahoma and worldwide for her action to amend the so-called "Personhood" bill in Oklahoma.

With Oklahoma's new, never-before-experienced Republican majority, we are seeing enactment of more and more offensive measures that adversely affect women and their rights to access safe medical procedures when making reproductive healthcare decisions. The so-called "Personhood" bill - SB 1433, introduced by Senator Brian Crain (Republican, Tulsa) would potentially allow governmental intrusion into families' personal lives by policing what happens to a woman's eggs without any similar thought to what happens to a man's sperm.

Ms Johnson's amendment seeks to draw attention to the absurdity, duplicity and lack of balance inherent in the policies of this state in regard to women. Oklahoma already incarcerates more women than any other place in the world. Under the latest provisions, a woman in Oklahoma may now face additional criminal charges and potential incarceration for biological functions that produce or, in some cases, destroy eggs or embryos, such as a miscarriage. In vitro fertilization, involving the fertilization outside the womb for implantation into the womb, would also potentially represent a violation of the proposed Personhood statute.

This bill shows hypocrisy and inconsistency from the Republican perspective of down-sized government and less government intrusion into people's private affairs. It is far more important that we address issues such as affordable healthcare to help improve our state's ranking of 48th in health status.

U.S.: Vote on Birth Control Coverage Possible Today - Action Needed

Perhaps as early as today, the Senate will vote on a proposal to allow any employer to deny insurance coverage for any service--for any reason whatsoever. Introduced by Senator Roy Blunt (R-MO), the amendment would erase critical protections in the Affordable Care Act and completely undermine a fundamental principle of the health care law—that everyone in this country deserves a basic standard of health insurance coverage.

Senator Blunt and his allies on the Right continue to cynically hide behind arguments about religious liberty while their attacks on the contraceptive requirement are based on nothing more than contempt for women's health care needs. Every American woman and couple has the fundamental right to make their own decision about whether and when to have children. And that every American woman deserves coverage of preventive health services regardless of where they work.

Recently President Obama changed the policy in what would seem to be a good-faith negotiation with a rational opponent.. Under the amended rule, religiously affiliated employers will not have to offer contraceptive coverage to their employees, but their health insurance companies will be required to provide the coverage directly to women at no charge. Women will still get access to the care they need, and institutions with religious objections will not have to provide it.

Unfortunately, birth control opponents have, once again, proved themselves to be anything but rational.

Click here to send a message to your senators: Affordable access to birth control is good public policy. And reactionary ideology can't be allowed to trump that.

Ever-increasing Nonrenewable Natural Resource (NNR) Scarcity

There will always be plenty of NNRs (Nonrenewable Natural Resources) in the ground, but there are not enough of them that are economically viable to perpetuate our industrialized lifestyle. That is to say: globally available, economically viable supplies associated with an ever-increasing number of the fossil fuels, metals, and nonmetallic minerals that enable our industrial lifestyle paradigm are becoming increasingly prevalent globally.

The author previously conducted NNR scarcity analyses based primarily on US Geological Survey (USGS) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. This new analysis is based on World Bank (WB) NNR pricing data-specifically, pricing data obtained from the WB Energy (fossil fuel) Price Index and the Metals and Minerals Price Index. These new findings confirm the findings from his previous analyses derived from USGS and EIA data - global NNR scarcity is becoming increasingly prevalent, and debilitating.

Energy prices have grown at an alarming increasing compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since from 1960 to the present:

* 1960 to 1999 increased 4%, driven primarily by OPEC since the 1970s, and by incipient global oil scarcity during the later years of the 20th century.

* 2000 - 2008 (pre Recession) increased 13.5% CAGR, driven by global industrialism, which necessitated the exploitation of increasingly expensive, lower quality fossil fuel deposits, i.e., fewer, smaller, and/or less accessible fossil fuel deposits, typically of declining grade and/or purity.)

* 2009 to 2011 (post Great Recession) increased 18.9% CAGR, driven by unsuccessful worldwide attempts to reestablish pre-recession global economic growth trajectories.

Metals and minerals prices also grew tremendously:

* 1960 - 1999 prices declined at -1.5% CAGR - when globally available, economically viable metals and minerals supplies were generally sufficient or more than sufficient to completely address global requirements.

* 2000 - 2008 (pre Recession) increased 14.3% CAGR, driven by our newly emerging quest for global industrialism, which necessitated the exploitation of increasingly expensive, lower quality metals and minerals deposits, i.e., fewer, smaller, and/or less accessible metals/minerals deposits, typically of declining grade and/or purity.

* 2009 - 2011(post Great Recession) increased 20.1% CAGR, driven by unsuccessful worldwide attempts to reestablish pre-recession global economic growth trajectories.

Assertions and Projections

* During the 20th century "commodity boom/bust cycles", episodes of global NNR scarcity were temporary because additional economically viable NNR supplies were readily available to be brought online to completely address global requirements

* During the 21st century global NNR scarcities are permanent - globally available, economically viable supplies of an NNR will never again be sufficient to completely address global requirements.

* In mid 2008 and again in early 2011, global economic growth was throttled as unacceptably high NNR price levels curtailed both global NNR demand/utilization and global economic output (GDP). The underlying cause associated with both the Great Recession and the aborted post-recession economic recovery was ever-increasing NNR scarcity.

* Global NNR scarcity will intensify going forward, thereby precluding a permanent recovery from the Great Recession. Each attempt to reestablish pre-recession economic growth trajectories will increase NNR demand; which will force NNR suppliers to exploit increasingly expensive, lower quality NNR deposits; which will cause NNR prices to increase; which will curtail NNR demand and utilization; which will curtail economic output (GDP); which will abort the attempted economic recovery.

This Time Really IS Different.

*Newly industrializing nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are emerging, increasing meteorically global requirements for the earth's finite and non-replenishing NNRs.

*The population of the industrialized and industrializing nations has risen from 1.5 billion people in the late 20th century, to 5 billion, most of whom have yet to even remotely approach their full NNR utilization potential.

*Our ever-increasing global NNR requirements are manifesting themselves within the context of increasingly-constrained-i.e., increasingly expensive, lower quality-NNR supplies.

As global NNR scarcity becomes increasingly prevalent going forward, the economic output (GDP) levels associated with an increasing number of industrialized and industrializing nations will peak permanently and enter terminal decline, as will the societal well being levels-the population levels and material living standards-associated with these nations.

Diminishing NNR Input = Diminishing Economic Output ( GDP )

Our historical reality of "continuously more and more"-which we in the industrialized West have experienced since the inception of our industrial revolution and have come to take for granted - is giving way to our new reality of "continuously less and less". And judging by the ever-increasing incidence of global economic turmoil, political instability, and social unrest; we will not accept our new reality gracefully.

NNR scarcity is the most daunting challenge ever to confront humanity. If we Homo sapiens are truly an exceptional species, now is the time to prove it.

Democratic Republic of Congo and Madagascar Connect Family Planning with Environmental Health

Remote rural communities in developing countries typically face the related challenges of extreme poverty, poor health, and environmental degradation. And population growth often exacerbates these challenges. In communities that face environmental challenges along with high fertility and high maternal and child mortality, health programs that include family planing can have great benefits for the health and well-being of women and families, with positive influences on the local environment. Meeting the reproductive health needs of women and ensuring environmental sustainability by connecting family planning with environment programs has proven to be a "win-win" strategy. Yet this connection has often been seen as controversial or irrelevant to environmental policymaking.

Developing countries, with their faster rates of population growth, are contributing a growing share of CO2 emissions, due to rapid deforestation which releases large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

The UNDP says that developing countries face a double burden of being more vulnerable to wider environmental challenges such as climate change but also having to cope with immediate environmental problems such as resource depletion and poor water quality.

Family planning is a response to an existing need, and it gives women autonomy and equity. A 2008 study found that unintended pregnancy accounts for up to 41% of all births worldwide and over 200 million women worldwide have an unmet need for family planning. Family planning is "the factor in population growth most amenable to program and policy interventions," according to the UNFPA.

Researchers estimate that the demand for contraception will grow by 40% over the next 15 years. The context of family planning has shifted from population control decades ago to individual rights. And the impetus for programs is coming from local communities and developing countries.

In Democratic Republic of Congo, the World Wildlife Fund, through partnerships with local nongovernmental organizations and the Ministry of Health in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is working to improve access to family planning in rural areas with existing conservation programs to give women more autonomy to limit their births and improve maternal and under-5 mortality.

The family planning projects began with women reporting no access to family planning services in remote areas. The closest health center to either give birth or access other health services is up to 30 kilometers away and has few personnel, very limited equipment, and often no medicines. Because of this challenge, the programs focus on training community-based health workers who distribute contraceptives and provide guidance and counseling in rural villages. Public awareness campaigns, based on face-to-face dialogue, focuses on the benefits of family planning on women's health and income and how these benefits extend to children, families, and the entire community. Women with access to family planning services will know how to space births, have the time to recover from childbirth, and have the strength to work in their own businesses or in agriculture, leading to more income.

Women also participate in land management training. With access to reproductive health, women are healthier to participate in conservation activities, decreasing the population pressure on the environment.

Madagascar, off the coast of Eastern Africa, is home to 5% of global biodiversity and 80% of its flora and fauna are found nowhere else in the world. With a per capita GDP of only US$438, it is a "least developed country," . Its population of 21 million is projected to reach 29 million by 2025. Maternal mortality is extremely high, and only 29% of married women are using modern contraception.

In a coastal area that depends on fishing, women average six to seven children each, the closest facility that provides reproductive health care is 50 kilometers away through a desert, and high fertility and unmet need for family planning is stressing the environment. The number of fishermen in some areas has almost tripled from 535 to 1,510 in 20 years. And in 2011, 60% of the fish caught were juveniles, a trend that points to unsustainable fishing practices.

On the other hand, Blue Ventures, a UK-based marine conservation organization dedicated to conservation, education, and sustainable development in tropical coastal communities, started the Velondriake marine conservation program in a remote area on Madagascar to support sustainable resource use and in 2007, and opened regional family planning clinics serving 40 villages by 2011. The clinics focus on peer-led education campaigns, group discussions, educational films, and community events such as theater, sports, and cultural activities. The contraceptive prevalence has risen from under 10% in January 2007 to almost 35% by January 2011, and the fertility rate has fallen by about one-third since the start of the project.

Niger Struggling to Feed Refugees, as Well as Its Own Growing Population

In Nigeria, Tuareg rebel fighters want to create an independent state across the regions of Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu and have been using weapons released from the Libya conflict in a fresh campaign against the Malian army, causing many villagers to flee their homes, and an estimated 7,000 Malians taking refuge in western areas of Niger, and putting a strain on neighboring areas.

Villagers in the Tiallabéri region have been hit hard by the drought of 2011 and are facing increasing food insecurity. Niger's government has already asked for assistance from the international community, predicting nearly half its population will face food shortages in 2012. Some agencies have sent emergency supplies to western Niger, but there would only be enough "to meet immediate needs".

With the effects of climate change making for unpredictable harvests and a growing population, Niger has frequently faced food shortages. But now severe droughts are happening more frequently. Religious leaders - seeing the looming food shortages and how population has grown from 2 to 15 million over the last five decades - are now openly addressing the topic of family planning as a way to ensure a healthier population, which can be sustained by Niger's fragile resources.

A humanitarian-aid commissioner visiting the country after a space of two years, expressed her surprise at finding local Imams in favour of gaps between children as both healthier for mothers and offspring, and in keeping with the Koran. The commissioner also found an openness at the government level in discussing Niger's annual 3.3% population growth. The topic is no longer taboo. The commissioner says that, while making links between food shortages and population growth is a sensitive and complex subject, especially where poor families rely on having many children to help farm land, it is recognized that another food crisis looming across the Sahel region, and it is an important time to explore how countries with fragile environments can best look after their populations.

Women's Health is Not Beside the Point

There are a couple of new fronts in the War on Women. Breast exams for poor women? Why, that's an opportunity to attack Planned Parenthood. Birth control coverage without co-pays? That's their chance to brand the Obama administration as an enemy of religious freedom.

The fight over contraceptive coverage continues, and we can't afford to relax yet. Opponents frame their objections to the requirement as coming from concerns over religious liberty, rather than as overt opposition to birth control. But in doing so, they have made statements that are offensive, dismissive, and grotesquely out of touch with the real needs and day to day lives of women.

One pundit dismissed women's need for birth control as "beside the point." Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R/NE-1) said that birth control was "unrelated to the basic needs of health care." And the Bishop of Phoenix said that the decision is an attempt to turn Catholics into "second-class citizens."

Women's health is not beside the point: it is the central point. Every American woman should have the same access to affordable contraceptives. The current rule will save the average American woman some $600 in out-of-pocket health care costs. For families living paycheck to paycheck, struggling to pay for day care or get their car fixed, this could make all the difference.

In a respectfully balanced compromise: explicitly religious employers are exempt from the new requirement. Some 335,000 churches are exempt, but the White House is still receiving a ceaseless barrage of criticism from opponents of family planning. Opponents of birth control have introduced legislation in Congress to rescind the policy.

The Obama administration and our allies in Congress need to know that you see though this ploy. Please take a moment, go to https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions#!/petition/stand-strong-support-new-no-cost-birth-control-policy/HM8jg7Y4 to sign a White House petition in support of the coverage requirement and to send an email to your members of Congress. Tell them not to back down in the fight to protect women's access to health care.

Energy: Eventually Economic Reality Will Impact the U.S.

By Bruce Parks, former nuclear plant senior engineer

Renewables like wind and solar just are not reliable enough to provide 24/7 power. - Technology for storage is just not getting there. Pumped storage sites are limited in number and capacity. Compressed gas is very inefficient and limited. Perhaps huge battery capacity which is very expensive. - "Smart grid" with long distance very high voltage DC will help alleviate regional storage requirements. - Electrical cars would have to be charged in the day, not at night, if the solar option is taken or a significant part of the mix.

With the environmental groups in opposition to nuclear, oil, coal and hydro the only* base load power option will become gas. But wait, the gas-in-the-feature scenario needs fracking. Environmentalists also oppose fracking. (*I do not have much hope for fusion electric power in the near or mid term - perhaps in 100 years?)

Our trade competition in Asia is going coal big time. Highly polluting coal at that. In terms of fuel, coal-fired plants account for 55% of India's installed electricity capacity, South Africa's 92%; China's 77%; and Australia's 76%. With "free trade" we will not be competitive on energy alone. Yes India and China are going towards renewable's, BUT are also expanding fossil capacity.

The going green model in Europe will eventually make them non-competitive with Asia and South America. China and India are already making serious inroads. Countries like Norway and Sweden are blessed with lots of hydro - solar is not a great option here. Denmark has great steady winds. But, the heavy industry countries like UK, Germany, France and Italy just will not remain industrial powers by rapidly going green.

My primary point is that going green for an industrial power is not an option in the near or mid term. To try to rapidly change will sap the very economic capacity to go green in the future.

The environmental people need to understand that one reason we have some grace on electrical power growth is the movement of industry, and jobs, OUT of the USA.

* The clothes they wear come from Central America and South Asia and are made with fossil fuel power - a lot of coal in Asia.

* The iPad they play with takes power from 77% coal power in China and nuclear in Korea (The chips are made in South Korea.)

* Many of the gadgets they buy at Wal Mart and the tools they buy at Home Depot are made with China's 77% coal electricity.

* The rare earth battery they have in their Prius was mined, purified and partially fabricated in China using petroleum products and electricity that is 77% coal.

The clear skies they see here are, in part, due to filthy skies in Asia.

All economists, whether Keynesian or Austrian school, all agree that this massive trade deficit cannot go on. We will be forced to bring the jobs, and some pollution home, or live like an old "colony". With a lower standard of living providing food and raw material to the manufacturing facilities in the "mother country." Which do they want?

Population 7 Billion: It’s Time to Talk

Go to http://www.populationspeakout.org/pledges to sign the GPSO pledge and see the interactive map of pledgers.

Also go to findthebalance.org to see the new website and take the quiz.

All across the planet, people are speaking up about about population growth. According to the U.N. Population Division, the world population surpassed the 7 billion mark on October 31st, 2011 and it's time for a broader public discussion -- especially about the importance of family planning and the role that educating girls and empowering women can play in creating a healthier and more sustainable world.

Peter Gleick: Population Dynamics Key to Sustainable Water Solutions

"Water is tied to everything we care about," said MacArthur "Genius" Fellow and President of the Pacific Institute Peter Gleick in an interview with ECSP. However, "we cannot talk about water or any other resource issue...without also understanding the enormously important role of population dynamics and population growth."

Gleick, who recently launched the seventh edition of The World's Water at the Wilson Center, noted that people are, and have been for some time, using groundwater faster than it can be naturally replenished.

"Unless we talk about population, and its role in all of these resource issues," said Gleick, "then we are never going to move to sustainable solutions."

Deconstructing The Dangerous Dogma Of Denial: The Feminist-Environmental Justice Movement And Their Flight From Overpopulation

Editor's note: The entire article infuriated me so much that I only summarized enough to give you the gist. My comments are below

by Madeline Weld President, Population Institute of Canada

To be politically correct we must only criticize people of our own ideology or share a biological characteristic of the people being criticized. Otherwise we are seen as racist. Good arguments are routinely dismissed when waged by someone thought to be racially or sexually disqualified to comment on the issue. But Madeline Weld is a woman, and she reproaches the fem-left for its collusion in the crippling of the Program of Action as set out by the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo 16 years ago. She asserts that the feminist wing of the so-called "Environmental Justice" movement helped scuttlie effective population stabilization programs in developing countries.

Dr. Weld concludes,"It is time to drive the ideologues off the territory they are illegally occupying with a "fact-based revolution" —by simply presenting the facts, fearlessly and persistently."

Media reports on the wave of unrest sweeping the Arab world for the most part ignore a crucial underlying factor: rapid, unsustainable population growth. Seventeen years ago, Egypt, one of the countries at the center of the current unrest, hosted the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD).

Under the influence of feminist and social justice NGOs, population reduction as an end in itself was off the agenda as antithetical to women's rights. A focus on development alone was expected to bring about a reduction in population growth. In the absence of national or international (UN) population strategies, financial support for family planning has fallen sharply and population growth has remained rapid. Consequently, development has lagged and a deteriorating environment and resource scarcity have led to conflict in many regions.

Population growth, development, and stability: Egypt as an example

In 1994, Egypt had 60 million people, in 2010 it had 85 million—a 42% increase in 16 years. The UNFPA projects 130 million by 2050 (UNFPA, 2010). Rapid growth is fuelled by the youth of the population: one-third under 14 years of age, 20% between 15 and 29 years old. (And much more undeniable facts about Egypt - please read the entire article at http://candobetter.net/node/2373 for this infomation.)

Egypt's population growth is destroying its ability to feed itself. In 1960, Egypt had 26 million people and was self-sufficient in almost all basic food commodities. In recent decades, it has depended on revenues from oil exports to import about half of the staple foods it needs. Now, with its oil reserves running dry and its growing population needing more oil for its own uses, Egypt is about to become an oil importer.

The Programme of Action, the document that arose from the Cairo conference, was clear on the potential for trouble ahead (UNFPA, 1995a). It specifically recognized that the large proportion of young people in many developing countries would result in extremely rapid growth at current fertility rates, and that this growth would cause enormous social and environmental problems that their governments were very poorly equipped to handle. The impact of the population factor is not negated by the existence of corrupt and despotic governments, bad governance, unfavourable trade conditions, or anything else. The International Conference on Population and Development: stymied by ideology

The Cairo conference fled from numbers. It focused on the rights of women, the poor, and the disempowered. The Programme of Action offered no guidelines for governments or international organizations such as the World Health Organization to implement ethical, practical programs for slowing population growth and bringing population levels in line with the resource base available to support them. Instead, it stated that "All couples and individuals have the basic right to decide freely and responsibly the number and spacing of their children and to have the information, education, and means to do so."

If the Programme of Action recognized that rapid population growth was taking many countries down a dangerous road at great speed, why did it refuse to actively promote the use of brakes?

Food for 9 Billion: Food Fuels Egypt's Revolution

As a result of Arab Spring, Egypt is seeing its first democratic elections in decades. At stake is the price of food, among other things. High prices -- for bread, in particular -- helped fuel the protests in Tahrir Square back in January. Experts say that if Egypt's going to have any chance at feeding its 85 million people, it needs a food policy do-over. The PBS series, Food for 9 Billion, is about the global challenge of feeding a growing world.

Market Place's Sandy Tolan says: Egyptians are proud to say that their revolution, swelling up from here in Tahrir Square, was about dignity, and shaking off a dictator. The groundwork for the revolution goes back to the international food crisis of 2008. As global commodity and petroleum prices rose, cooking oil, tomatoes, lentils, rice and wheat soared out of reach for many families. Riots and protests broke out around the world. In Egypt, fights erupted in bread lines and some Egyptians died.

Qotb's family comes from more than a hundred generations who grew Egypt's food in the fertile Nile silt. Now Qotb is one of more than a million Egyptians who've quit the land. Some estimate the number is closer to four million. No longer growing food, his family spends more than half its income on it.

Today Egypt imports more than half its wheat. Entrepreneurs are using up Egypt's underground water to grow grapes and strawberries for Europe. This came out of what the U.S. Agency for International Development promoted: Grow what you can for domestic consumption, and import the rest using cash from these high-value export crops. But this was no free market: The model under Mubarak was distorted, built on favors, under Mubarak's crony capitalism ruled. And cash never really trickled down to the farmers. They've been capitalizing on connections that the average farmer cannot have in terms of marketing, economy of scale, access to water, access to technology, access to subsidized fuel, access to subsidized fertilizers.

Millions of farmers were off the land for various reasons: Families grew too big for a single plot; fertilizer got too expensive; and under Mubarak-era laws, land rents got so high that farmers couldn't afford them anymore, and Mubarak's police state took it away that had been given to to farmers and gave it back to the original landlords.

Part of the Arab Spring revolution was farmers demanding help to stay on the land and grow food for Egyptians. That is the only way you can save the future agriculture of Egypt. Then you can cultivate the crops you need to minimize the gap between what we need and what we produce.

Also the country will need to modernize: More efficient irrigation, larger land plots through farmer cooperatives, criminalizing land grabs around the fertile delta. Otherwise the country will be vulnerable to price spikes in the global food supply, and to the political agendas of wheat- exporting countries like Russia and the United States.

Unfortunately food is not exactly the top item on Egypt's political agenda -- not when a new parliament will be fighting simply to implement democracy amidst military control. But citizens groups and some national leaders around the world link food self-suffiency with national security. They say the international markets have failed. It's time to grow more of our own at home.

Are You in the Know About Contraception, Pregnancy, Abortion and Teens?

The Guttmacher Institute has launched "Are you IN THE KNOW?", a new set of resources designed to inform a broad range of audiences to increase public awareness about sexual and reproductive health issues in a simple, compelling and fun format.

Are you IN THE KNOW? comprises a Web site, a mobile-friendly quiz, a vibrant set of flash cards and a booklet that lay out the top questions and answers on contraception, pregnancy, abortion and teens. Visit the Web site -http://www.guttmacher.org/catalog/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=36 - to browse the set of 110 questions and answers that provide you with the most up-to-date and accurate research available.

With your smart phone, check out the Are you IN THE KNOW? mobile-friendly Web site - http://www.guttmacher.org/mobile/in-the-know/ - the first of its kind for the Institute: By visiting the mobile site, you can take a fun quiz or browse the top 40 questions and answers by subject and access references for each answer, all from wherever you may be.

In addition to these helpful online resources, we have also created a new set of flash cards containing the 20 most frequently asked questions and answers - http://www.guttmacher.org/catalog/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=36 The flashcards utilize infographics and visual aids to better elucidate and enhance the science-based answers behind them.

U.S.: I'm Pro-life. So Why Do I Support Planned Parenthood?

I'm pro-life because I value all human life. This includes the lives of every person living in my country, the lives of children living in poverty, and victims of AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria in the third world, the lives of criminals on death row, the homeless living in the streets, and soldiers serving our country abroad.

I also value the nascent human life of the unborn.

So why aren't I trying to defund Planned Parenthood, calling abortion doctors "murderers," and petitioning the federal government to overturn Roe vs. Wade?

In fact, why haven't I spent all my money - and demanded that the government do the same - to send meals and vaccines to every person on the planet and provid rooms for all the homeless, and demand our country surrender every war?

Because these actions would substitute ideologies for solutions, and favor short-term irrational emotion rather than long-term pragmatic decisions.

I want the abortion rate in this country - and every country - to plummet. Almost everyone feels that way.

But overturning Roe vs. Wade, or cutting funding for healthcare to low-income women and families is not going to make it happen. It's going to happen by expanding healthcare access, contraceptive use, and sex education.

Russia has had one of the highest abortion rates in the world. But in the late 1980s and 1990s the expansion of contraceptive access in Russia was found to curb the practice. (http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB5055/index1.html)

In Uganda, where abortion is illegal and sex education focuses exclusively on abstinence: the abortion rate there is more than double what it is in the United States. (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/12/world/12abortion.html?src=tp)

In the U.S. a 46% decline in the odds of an abortion was seen when low-income women had access to healthcare that provided contraception in year-long supplies, according to researchers at University of California (http://healthland.time.com/2011/02/25/want-to-slash-the-abortion-rate-dole-out-a-years-supply-of-birth-control-pills/)

In the Netherlands, where abortion (and prostitution) are completely legal, the abortion rate is the lowest in the world, credited to very comprehensive sex education and easy access to contraceptives, according to the Guttmacher Institute. (http://health.usnews.com/health-news/blogs/on-women/2009/10/14/abortion-down-contraception-up-recipe-for-health-reform)

An ideological war on abortion that ignores the data and sets its sights on low-income women who lack proper education and resources must stop. The Pro-Life movement must make reducing the rate of abortion the goal, and seek rational methods and solutions that will serve this purpose. If they continue with this righteous ideology without concern for results, then we want the term "pro-life" back. They're using it wrong.

Drought in West Africa Threatens Millions

In the Sahel region, Niger, Senegal, Mali, Mauritania, Chad, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Nigeria are suffering failed harvests and lack of rain, affecting millions of people, with up to 500,000 on the brink of starvation.

The crisis is made worse by rising food prices and the return of 200,000 migrant workers to West Africa because of the civil wars in Libya and Ivory Coast. These workers are no longer able to send money home from their foreign jobs.

Now the question is whether the world's wealthy nations will respond in time - or whether they will repeat the disaster of the Somalia famine last year, when early warnings were ignored for nearly a year and thousands died needlessly before massive aid was finally sent.

The Sahel is a vast, sprawling, arid region, with villages often in remote and inaccessible places, making it difficult to distribute food to them.

Unlike Somalia, the Sahel is not in the grip of war, and it is not controlled by a militant group blocking aid from reaching much of Somalia.

UNICEF says it needs $100-million this year to save the lives of 500,000 children in the Sahel. It wants to provide food to a million people in the region, and so far it only has the resources to feed half of them.

David Gressly, the regional director of UNICEF in West Africa said: "Everyone has learned a lesson from the Horn of Africa famine. We're acting much more quickly this time. We're going to react in time and save a large number of lives."

The latest UNICEF surveys have forecast that more than a million children will suffer acute malnutrition in the Sahel crisis. As many as 60% of malnourished children can die in a food crisis, but the death rate in the Sahel could be higher than usual because the region has still not recovered from a serious drought in 2010.

Climate change is believed to be one of the reasons for the rising number of food crises in the Sahel, but high fertility rates and rising populations are contributing to the problem by putting huge pressure on the Sahel's arid farmland, which can't support many people.

Niger, for example, endured devastating droughts in 2005, 2010, and again this year. "The death rates could be higher this time because households are still under stress. It takes households that are on the edge and it pushes them over the edge. We've seen families starting to withdraw their children from school as a coping mechanism," Gressly said.

Emergency aid for the Sahel should be followed by long-term programs to strengthen the communities and help them prevent such crises in the future. It costs $80 a day to treat a malnourished child, yet it would have cost only $1 a day to prevent the child's malnutrition if the money had been invested in development programs in advance.

The Word on Women - Niger Starts to Tackle Soaring Population - with Help of Imams

Until recently the subject of family planning in Niger was taboo, but commissioner Kristalina Georgieva, the European Union's top humanitarian-aid official, was pleasantly surprised this time to see a project teaching women about contraception and the importance of spacing births.

The local Imam where she visited "was quoting the Koran saying there's a verse that says there has to be time between the birth of children so the children and mother can recover and be strong."

The support of the local religious leaders at the health centre she visited in Bambey, in western Niger, was crucial for bringing down the high rate of population growth, she said. The growth was putting a strain on a country that is among the poorest in the world, that struggles with a harsh climate and is vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Since independence in 1960, Niger's population has risen from less than 2 million to 15 million plus.

Now there is "remarkable openness to address family planning". "At the level of the president, prime minister, ministers and cabinet there's an openness to discussing family planning. There's an openness that 3.3-percent population growth is not sustainable," she added.

"There are already activities on the ground (for) family planning in a very community-based and respectful manner … The topic is not taboo anymore."

Mothers need to space their children to avoid back-to-back pregnancies which contribute to malnutrition and keep mothers weak. "That's where there is potential to work hand in hand with community leaders and religious leaders. It has to be culturally acceptable to work."

The annual hungry season in Africa's Sahel countries is expected to begin in late February or early March - several months earlier than usual. Aid agencies say between five and nine million people are at risk.

Talking about population growth in relation to food shortages is a sensitive issue, partly because large families are considered important in many cultures, particularly where people rely on their children to help on the land and to support them in old age.

Many argue that the real causes of food shortages are political and economic. Georgieva says a food crisis is looming in the Sahel due to poor rains, bad harvests, food-price hikes and the return of migrants from Libya, among other factors.

But she also argues more generally that it is time for the world to pay more attention to managing population growth in fragile environments. When she visited Kenya last year she realised that in 1963 it had more or less the same population as her own country Bulgaria - well below 10 million. Today Bulgaria is at 7.5 million whereas Kenya's has soared to 40 million.

The populations of other affected countries had also grown five times and this meant that when there were droughts the impact was all the more severe.

For a very readable look at some of the arguments on why population growth is not the cause of famine, take a look at this article published by Al Jazeera: Famine in the Horn of Africa: Malthus beware. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/08/20118178844125460.html

The Demotechnic Index

Jack Vallentyne's demotechnic index is a way to measure per capita energy in terms of the metabolic (or physiological) energy required for subsistence on a reasonable diet, which was called a D-unit and which was determined to be 2300 kilocalories per day or 840,000 kilocalories per year. Average per capita "technological energy consumption" for a given country could then be quantified, in D-units, as total technological energy consumption (T, in kilocalories) by the country divided by 840,000 kilocalories (or 3.57 gigajoules).

Using the UN data for 1973 Vallentyne obtained D-index values ranging from 97 for the U.S. and 91 for Canada to <2 for most of Africa. In the U.S. each of us in 1973 had, on average, the environmental impact of 97 "energy slaves" -- plus our own food consumption -- to answer for.

In this way per capita energy consumption is roughly correlated with both per capita consumption of resources generally and with per capita production of wastes or pollution. As such, it is as good a general measure of per capita impact on the environment as we are ever likely to have. It allowed the environmental impacts of a country to be viewed not as a function of just its population size (P) but as a function of its "human population equivalent" or "consumption adjusted population", as: C = P (1 + D-index)

Vallentyne was Right: Achieving Sustainability Requires Accounting for All Relevant Factors

by William N. Ryerson, Population Institute and Population Media Center

(Editor's note: I have broken this article into three parts. Parts 2 (History of the Population Movement) and 3 (Things are Getting Worse) will be done at a later time.

Population has waxed and waned as an issue of public consciousness and action by policymakers. The issue is on the ascendancy again in part because of climate change and food crises caused by escalating food prices, the energy crisis and growing shortages of fresh water. In the face of these problems, attempts of some governments to stimulate higher birth rates, over concern with aging populations, are misplaced and counterproductive. Vallentyne's long-neglected 'demotechnic index' holds new promise for considering both population numbers and consumption rates when evaluating the impact of humans on the environment. Its appearance in publication now is all the more important because of the failure of political leaders to act on the numerous expert warnings issued over several decades regarding the impact of human population growth and expanding utilization of resources. Thus, the world community needs to act urgently to utilize the demotechnic index of Jack Vallentyne to look holistically at ways to achieve a sustainable society.

(Editor's note: The demotechnic index is simply the ratio of technological energy consumption to the energy required for physiological subsistence alone, which is estimated to be 3.57 gigajoules per capita year. Canadians and Americans have huge demothechnic indices, 118 and 91 respectively, meaninng that each North American uses about one hundred times more energy than required for subsistence alone.)

Jack Vallentyne originally presented his demotechnic index at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo. It is an important contribution to the cause of achieving global sustainability.

Indeed, achieving global sustainability has been a central concern of many ecologists and other scientists during the last 50 years. The pillars of sustainability — population, consumption, waste patterns, and technology — have waxed and waned in the public consciousness. In the 1970s, population was often seen as the central issue, but Jack Vallentyne also called on scientists to recognize the importance of consumption. His work today calls on the global community not to forget the population factor and to take a balanced approach in looking at all relevant factors that will ultimately determine whether human civilization is sustainable over many more millennia or is a short-term experiment gone awry.

Indeed, the number of people on the planet would not matter if we were ethereal beings. Our economic activity, i.e. our consumption of resources and our production of wastes, makes our numbers matter.

In the 1970s, population was a visible issue. The concern with the number of humans focused on developing countries in part because of the evidence that large family size was a leading cause of poverty and thus that rapid population growth would prevent economic development. Environmental concerns centered on deforestation and loss of the biodiversity found in many developing countries.

Because developed countries had the resources to address pollution problems and since most had undertaken significant pollution abatement efforts starting in the 1960s, there was relatively little concern in the 1970s about population growth in developed countries. In part, this was the case because many developed countries had achieved very low fertility rates. Migration from developing to developed countries was relatively small as a contributor to population growth of the latter and was seen by many as having zero net environmental impact. In addition, since the goal of most societies was, first and foremost, economic growth, migration was often viewed as an unmitigated positive because of the impact it had on the economic status of migrants and, more broadly, on corporate profits.

Along the way, population became taboo. President Reagan declared that population was, at worst, a neutral factor. That position, plus the backlash against legalized abortion in the United States, made concern with population issues politically incorrect. By the time of the second world population conference in Mexico City in 1994, discussion of population had all but disappeared from consideration by those working in the environmental sustainability arena.

More recently, concern about climate change, combined with the prospect of peak oil and fresh water shortages, has led some environmentalists to conclude that the only environmental concern of merit was high (read ‘excessive') consumption and waste by developed countries. Reducing the ecological footprint of individuals in developed countries, but not the number of footprints, became a new mantra that still dominates the materials produced by many environmental organizations. This concern was expressed in ways that steered clear of two important sustainability factors: population growth and economic growth. The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo reinforced the belief that concern with population per se could lead to loss of a rights-based approach to women's reproductive health.

In the last few years, the Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy (CASSE), the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics at the University of Vermont, the Institute for Sustainable Solutions at Portland State University, and other groups have attempted to draw the public's attention to the fact that resource limitations must lead to a state of non-growth of the global economy, even as developing countries struggle to increase per capita incomes. Selling the idea of global economic stagnation is certainly an uphill battle, but these organizations are trying to force those who lament ‘overconsumption' to look at the drivers of such consumption found within economic systems.

At the same time, the food crises of 2008 and 2011 have helped to spark a resurgence of interest in the population factor. The IPAT (impact = population × affluence × technology) formula (Ehrlich & Holdren 1972) and the ecological footprint concept have continued to point to the fact that population, consumption (or affluence), and technology are all factors in environmental impact and that omitting any one from consideration is a recipe for failing to take the steps necessary to achieve national or global sustainability.

Even so, despite growing evidence of global overshoot, many developed countries have acted as if there were no limits to growth of numbers or economic activity, offering financial incentives to people to have babies and increasing flows of immigration while simultaneously rationing use of water or other resources because of growing shortages, urging employers to stagger working hours because of worsening traffic jams, and taking extraordinary steps to obtain increasingly scarce, risky, and expensive energy resources.

Indeed, many economists try to scare the public in developed countries into thinking that aging populations are a problem. They describe how aging will make a nation's populace less innovative and vibrant. They wring their collective hands over the impact on the working population of having to care for so many retirees. Ultimately, they urge incentives for population growth, both to increase the birth rate and net immigration. These arguments are based on a view of the future that is, in reality, a Ponzi scheme. Endless growth of the population is impossible, and additional young people and working age immigrants will grow older and need support.

In fact, incentive programs like those in Australia, France, and Germany that rely on ever-increasing numbers of people to support the elderly or to maintain economic welfare, if they are successful, will only make the ‘dependency ratio' worse by adding babies (who are 100% dependent) to the burden on the working population. Many of the elderly in most developed countries have savings that make them able to live independently for many years of retirement. More important, raising retirement ages to reflect greater longevity and working capability of the elderly and making adjustments to pension program formulas are a much faster fix for the pension burden than trying to add more children, who likely won't become productive economically for a couple of decades.

In short, we need to plan for non-growing and probably shrinking populations and not try to postpone the day when those goals are achieved. Otherwise, we face serious environmental and social problems. Indeed, if we have a climate crisis, a biodiversity crisis, a water crisis, an energy crisis, and a food crisis, no country should be trying to stimulate higher birth rates.

Vallentyne to the rescue

The demotechnic index of Vallentyne is a useful contribution to the field of sustainability because it helps one to focus on the fact that both numbers of people and their economic activities are important factors in determining whether a society can achieve sustainability. It allows quantification via energy use rather than the less easily quantified concepts of affluence, technology, and consumption. His D-index is a useful improvement on the IPAT formula.

By the 1990 D-index values presented by Mata et al. (2012), we find that the USA is the most planet-damaging country and Canada is close behind India as the sixth and fifth most damaging, respectively, when population numbers are adjusted by energy consumption.

The need to act on Vallentyne's D-index for policy purposes

The scientific evidence is clear. Humanity has a serious and complex problem. It is not just a problem of population, nor of consumption, nor of climate change, nor of peak oil, nor of fresh water scarcity, nor of food insecurity, nor of loss of biodiversity in the oceans and on land. It is all of these. Indeed, mankind's problem is that human activity has out- grown the capacity of the planet to provide the necessary resources in a sustainable way. We are drawing down capital instead of living on the interest generated by renewable resources, and we have built much of modern civilization on the basis of non- renewable resources. We now need to take steps to reduce human demands on the biosphere to sustainable levels. Vallentyne's D-index is a key tool to demonstrate the extent to which each nation must take immediate action to achieve national and global sustainability.

Because of his untimely death, Vallentyne's work is not widely known. Through this series of papers, the authors hope to change that situation.

For the complete paper, see http://www.int-res.com/articles/esep2012/12/e012p005.pdf

Vallentyne was Right: Part 2 - History of the Population Movement

by William N. Ryerson, Population Institute and Population Media Center

The failure of political leaders to address population and consumption issues over the last half century has generally not been the result of lack of access to information about the problem. Indeed, there have been a series of high-level warnings to global leaders that many have heard but have chosen to ignore, hoping to duck the controversy or extend the profits of population growth realized by a few business leaders who were contributors to their political campaigns. Here is a sampling of the warnings given to American leaders and to the world.

(1) The work of Paul and Anne Ehrlich, including The Population Bomb

In 1968, the Sierra Club and Ballantine Books published The Population Bomb, which was a joint effort of Stanford biologists Paul and Anne Ehrlich (Ehrlich 1968). It became an instant bestseller. Combined with speeches given by Paul Ehrlich all over the USA and extensive media interviews (including more than 20 interviews on the Tonight Show with Johnny Car- son), the ‘Bomb' was responsible for launching the modern population movement and for making population a central focus of the first Earth Day in 1970.

Ehrlich, Yale biologist Charles Remington, and Connecticut attorney Dick Bowers founded Zero Population Growth (ZPG) following a talk Ehrlich gave at Yale in 1968. The organization (now called Population Connection) grew at its height to 60000 members and 600 chapters. In the mid-1980s the national board of ZPG decided it did not want to advocate for lower immigration levels and so gave up advocacy for US population stabilization. The board of the California chapter dissented, however, and split off to form Californians for Population Stabilization (CAPS), for which Stuart Hurlbert has served as board secretary since 2001.

The Ehrlichs' book was attacked when it was published and has regularly been ridiculed since that time. However, the warnings it contained were all couched in hedged terms common to scientific authors, indicating that the possible outcomes of overpopulation were not so much firm predictions as they were likely to occur if population growth remained at 1968 levels. The alarm raised helped to move the US government and other donor countries to invest large sums in making family planning services available around the world, which led to reductions in fertility rates and slowed the growth of world population. At the same time, the Green Revolution of the 1970s led to dramatic increases in grain production in countries like India and China, averting the immediate threat of massive starvation. However, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Norman Borlaug stated clearly that the Green Revolution he led would only buy the world community 30 yr in which to stop the ‘population monster' or the developing world would face even greater famines than the one he had helped to avert.

In retrospect, the Ehrlichs believe The Population Bomb was too optimistic (Ehrlich & Ehrlich 2009, Turner 2009). For while the Green Revolution averted a global catastrophe at the time, about 300 million people have died of malnutrition since then. The Green Revolution crops, depending as they do on petroleum-based pesticides and fertilizers and large quantities of fresh water, face an uncertain future as all 3 of these resources become less available.

(2) Publication of The Limits to Growth

Many corporate leaders and politicians scoffed when The Limits to Growth was published (Meadows et al. 1972). A careful analysis of the trends in utilization of resources, the Club of Rome-sponsored publication gave clear evidence that humanity was on a collision course with resource exhaustion. In 2009, Dennis Meadows, one of the co-authors of the report, said that human civilization is following the projections the authors forecast in 1972 (also see Turner 2008). However, except for the scientific community, the report generated no discernable action by world leaders.

(3) President's Commission on Population Growth and the American Future In July 1969, President Nixon proposed the creation of a Commission on Population Growth and the American Future (CPGAF). At the time, he stated, ‘One of the most serious challenges to human destiny in the last third of this century will be the growth of the population. Whether man's response to that challenge will be a cause for pride or for despair in the year 2000 will depend very much on what we do today' (CPGAF 1972, p. 3)

In 1972, the Commission released its final report urging the country to move quickly toward population stabilization (CPGAF 1972). Headed by John D. Rockefeller III, the ‘Rockefeller Commission' strongly urged that America give up its addiction to growth. While many Americans heeded the message and the fertility rate fell to replacement level within a year of the report's presentation, policy makers did not pay much attention. The President had other things on his mind, and 2 yr later, he resigned from office because of the Watergate scandal. Since that time, the US population has grown by over 100 million people, in significant part because of immigration.

The CPGAF recommended, among other things, that America act to end illegal immigration and to set legal immigration at 400000 people per year. The CPGAF determined that ‘the health of our country does not depend on [population growth], nor does the vitality of business, nor the welfare of the average person.' (J. D. Rockefeller, letter to President Nixon, available at www.population-security.org/rockefeller/ 001_population_growth_and_the_american_future. htm) Since the report was issued, annual legal immigration has quadrupled, and illegal immigration has mushroomed.

In the opening paragraph of its first chapter, the CPGAF (1972) report said, In the brief history of this nation, we have always assumed that progress and ‘the good life' are connected with population growth. In fact, population growth has frequently been regarded as a measure of our progress. If that were ever the case, it is not now. There is hardly any social problem confronting this nation whose solution would be easier if our population were larger. Even now, the dreams of too many Americans are not being realized; others are being fulfilled at too high a cost. Accordingly, this Commission has concluded that our country can no longer afford the uncritical acceptance of the popul tion growth ethic that ‘more is better.' And beyond that, after two years of concentrated effort, we have concluded that no substantial benefits would result from continued growth of the nation's population.

Perhaps the CPAFG most widely cited recommendation read, ‘Recognizing that our population cannot grow indefinitely, and appreciating the advantages of moving now toward the stabilization of population, the Commission recommends that the nation welcome and plan for a stabilized population.' The CPAFG report goes on to state, ‘In short, we find no convincing economic argument for continued national population growth.'

(4) The ‘Warning to Humanity' If we don't halt population growth with justice and compassion, it will be done for us by nature, brutally and without pity — and we will leave a ravaged world. ...Henry Kendall

In 1992, 1700 of the world's scientists, including the majority of Nobel Laureates in the sciences, signed a ‘Warning to Humanity' written by the late Henry Kendall, chair of the Union of Concerned Scientists (Kendall 1992). For the full text, see www.ucsusa. org/about/1992-world-scientists.html.

The ‘Warning to Humanity' stated clearly the need to stabilize population numbers and change the course of human civilization. The ‘Warning' identifies a range of critical stresses on the environment, including the atmosphere, water resources, oceans, soil, forests, living species, and population. Following are the highlights of the statement on population and the conclusion:

Population

The earth is finite. Its ability to absorb wastes and destructive effluent is finite. Its ability to provide food and energy is finite. Its ability to provide for growing numbers of people is finite. And we are fast approaching many of the earth's limits. Current economic practices which damage the environment, in both developed and underdeveloped nations, cannot be continued without the risk that vital global systems will be damaged beyond repair.

Pressures resulting from unrestrained population growth put demands on the natural world that can over- whelm any efforts to achieve a sustainable future. If we are to halt the destruction of our environment, we must accept limits to that growth.

No more than one or a few decades remain before the chance to avert the threats we now confront will be lost and the prospects for humanity immeasurably diminished.

Warning

We the undersigned, senior members of the world's scientific community, hereby warn all humanity of what lies ahead. A great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.

(5) Statement by the National Academies of Sciences of 58 nations

In 1994 the scientific academies of 58 nations came together to warn that humankind must stop looking to science alone to solve problems caused by over population (Science Summit on World Population 1994). The full statement can be found at http:// dieoff.org/page75.htm. Highlights of the academies' statement follow: Population growth, resource consumption, and the environment As human numbers further increase, the potential for irreversible changes of far reaching magnitude also increases. Indicators of severe environmental stress include the growing loss of biodiversity, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing deforestation worldwide, stratospheric ozone depletion, acid rain, loss of topsoil, and shortages of water, food, and fuel-wood in many parts of the world.

The earth is finite

The growth of population over the last half century was for a time matched by similar world-wide increases in utilizable resources. However, in the last decade food production from both land and sea has declined relative to population growth. The area of agricultural land has shrunk, both through soil erosion and reduced possibilities of irrigation. The availability of water is already a constraint in some countries. These are warnings that the earth is finite, and that natural systems are being pushed ever closer to their limits.

But time is short and appropriate policy decisions are urgently needed. In our judgment, humanity's ability to deal successfully with its social, economic, and environmental problems will require the achievement of zero population growth within the lifetime of our children.

Reducing fertility rates, however, cannot be achieved merely by providing more contraceptives. The demand for these services has to be addressed. Even when family planning and other reproductive health services are widely available, the social and economic status of women affects individual decisions to use them. The ability of women to make decisions about family size is greatly affected by gender roles within society and in sexual relationships. Ensuring equal opportunity for women in all aspects of society is crucial.

Action is needed now

Humanity is approaching a crisis point with respect to the interlocking issues of population, environment, and development. Scientists today have the opportunity and responsibility to mount a concerted effort to confront our human predicament. But science and technology can only provide tools and blueprints for action and social change. It is the governments and international decision-makers ... who hold the key to our future. We urge them to take incisive action now and to adopt an integrated policy on population and sustainable development on a global scale. With each year's delay the problems become more acute. Let 1994 be remembered as the year when the people of the world decided to act together for the benefit of future generations.

(6) The President's Council on Sustainable Development

In 1993, President Clinton established the President's Council on Sustainable Development (PCSD) to advise him on sustainable development and create ‘bold, new approaches to achieve our economic, environmental, and equity goals'. The Council served from 1993 to 1999. Among the recommendations of the PCSD was a move toward the stabiliza- tion of the US population (PCSD 1999).

In the 1990s, the USA was the only major industrialized country experiencing significant population growth. The PCSD (1999, Ch. 1, p. 3) report stated:

Annual growth figures of ... 1.0 percent may seem small, but they are not. Persistent 1.0 percent growth translates into a doubling time — the time it takes a population to double in size — of 70 years. This is an enormous increase when the population that is doubling is the United States, the third largest country in the world. Also, given the numeric size of the country, even apparently small percentage increases produce large increases in numbers.

The PCSD's recommendations about immigration policy included the development of comprehensive and responsible immigration and foreign policies that reduce illegal immigration and mitigate the factors that encourage immigration. The report stated (PCSD 1999 Ch. 1, p. 4):

Continued population growth in the United States, particularly on the scale envisioned by the medium and high projections, has enormous implications. Coupled with the technologies and resource consumption patterns that underlie the U.S. standard of living, population growth in America produces an environmental impact unparalleled by any other country at this time.

Continued population growth also has the potential to overwhelm efficiency and productivity gains, negating technology-based efforts to reduce U.S. environmental impact. Population growth also challenges industry's best efforts to provide new, higher quality jobs for all Americans and to improve real wages for American workers — which have been stagnant for 22 years. It similarly adds to the nation's needs to reduce poverty, improve education, and provide health care for all Americans. In short, the United States is already severely challenged by the need to provide better opportunities for millions of disadvantaged citizens, and continued population growth will exacerbate those challenges.

The PCSD's final report to the President in May 1999 added a paragraph on the desires of the American public with regard to population (PCSD 1999, Ch. 1, p. 5):

For decades, Americans have not had a desire for an ever-larger population. This is suggested by polls over the years. In 1974, 87 percent of respondents to a Roper poll said they did not wish the country had more people. A 1971 poll by the US Commission on Population Growth and the American Future found that 22 percent felt US population should be smaller than it was then, which was close to 200 million. As long ago as 1947, when U.S. population was 140 million, Gallup found that 55 percent of Americans believed the country would be ‘worse off' with more people.

The PCSD (1999, Ch 1, p. 20) report concluded with a series of recommendations, the first of which read, Stabilize U.S. population as early as possible in the next century as part of similar worldwide efforts, by providing universal access to a broad range of information, services, and opportunities so that individuals may plan responsibly and voluntarily the number and spacing of their children. These include: high-quality family planning and other basic and reproductive health services; equitable educational, economic, social, and political opportunities, particularly for women; reduction of infant mortality; and the increase of male responsibility for family planning and childrearing. This goal also entails targeted actions to eradicate poverty. While fertility is the largest contributor to U.S. population growth, responsible immigration policies that respect American traditions of fairness, freedom, and asylum will also contribute to voluntary population stabilization in the United States.

Of course, looking forward to 2050, immigration and births to immigrants are expected to exceed natural increase by 4-fold as a driver of US population growth, as projected by the Pew Hispanic Center (Passel & Cohn 2008).

Vallentyne was Right - Part 3: Things Are Getting Worse

By Bill Ryerson, Population Media Center and Population Institute

In September 2011, the Population Institute (PI) issued a landmark report ‘From 6 billion to 7 billion: how population growth is changing and challenging our world' that showed how many trends in per capita resource availability at the time of the world's population reaching 6 billion in 1999 had reversed in deleterious directions by the arrival at 7 billion in 2011. As the report stated (PI 2011, p. 2):

When world population crossed the 6.0 billion mark in October of 1999, there was little apparent reason to believe that the march of human progress would be slowed any time soon by population growth. Indeed, chronic hunger and severe poverty were in a prolonged decline, and despite an accelerated rate of resource consumption, commodity prices for minerals and fossil fuels — measured in constant dollars — were at or near historic lows. A rising middle class in Asia spurred hopes that the advance of industrialization would bring prosperity to all. And while there were concerns even then about issues like water scarcity, climate change, biodiversity, and environmental degradation, they were tempered by a widely held belief that technology and human know-how could overcome all obstacles. Moreover, there was a strong conviction that fertility rates would continue a steady descent, and that population growth would level off and decline before these environmental problems could reach a crisis stage.

Indeed, as the report summarizes, in 1999, oil prices were at $10 USD barrel−1, and the Economist magazine speculated they could fall to $5 USD barrel−1. The report continues, ‘The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that oil prices would remain essentially flat, at $21 USD barrel−1, until 2010 and then rise steadily to $28 USD barrel−1 through 2020.' As a result of cheap oil, food prices in 1999 were at or near record lows. The PI (2011, p. 4) report continues:

Looking ahead to 2020, the International Food Policy and Research Institute's (IFPRI) 1999 report [Pinstrup-Andersen et al. 1999] predicted that food prices would ‘remain steady or fall slightly.' While forecasting a ‘continued slowdown in crop yield increases,' IFPRI indicated that real cereal prices would increase only slightly through 2010, and that after 2010 declining population growth and other factors would ‘reduce demand growth enough to cause cereal prices to resume their long-term downward trend.

The PI (2011) report summarizes the low prices of many minerals and metals in 1999 and the efforts made by the world community to address global warming. By 2011, many of these optimistic trends had reversed. As noted by the report (PI 2011, p. 5):

In 2010, the world produced 87.4 million barrels per day (mb d−1) of oil, sharply lower than the 96 mb d−1 forecast in 1999. Much of the increased production came from tar sands and other unconventional oil sources rather than conventional crude oil. In a sharp reversal from earlier forecasts, the International Energy Agency last year projected that crude oil out- put would reach ‘an undulating plateau' of around 68 to 69 mb d−1 by 2020, but it would never again regain ‘its all-time peak of 70 mb d−1 reached in 2006.

The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) earlier this year projected that the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil will rise from an average of $83 USD barrel−1 in 2011 to $100 USD barrel−1 in 2017 and $125 USD barrel−1 by 2035 (EIA 2011).

When asked to comment on the global energy situation, Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency, said in a BBC interview (One Planet, ‘Peak Oil and Happy Cows' broadcast 5 September 2010; www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/ p009hq8g#synopsis ), ‘It is definitely depressing, more than depressing, I would say alarming...'

As a result of higher energy prices, the global food markets have driven food prices to near record levels. In turn, many more people around the planet have become impoverished, and about a billion people were chronically hungry. As stated in the PI (2011, p. 5) report:

On average, the prices of basic food commodities have more than doubled in recent years. In February of 2011 the Food and Agricultural Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index of basic food commodities (grains, meat, dairy, sugars, oils and fats) reached a record high of 238 (2002 to 2004 = 100). The FAO's latest report, issued in September, showed only slight moderation in food prices. The index for August stood at 231, just below the record.

There is a growing consensus that food prices will trend even higher in the years ahead. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-FAO's ‘Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020' reports that, ‘A period of high volatility in agricultural commodity markets has entered its fifth successive year. High and volatile commodity prices and their implications for food insecurity are clearly among the important issues facing governments today.

In June of 2011, Oxfam International released a research report, and predicting that the price of key food staples could increase ‘120% to 180% by 2030' warning that ‘This will prove disastrous for food importing poor countries, and raises the prospect of a wholesale reversal in human development.' (Oxfam International 2011, p. 7)

The Oxfam International (2011) report summarized the near record levels of various commodity prices on the world market, including fertilizers, metals and minerals, and non-food agricultural products like cotton, timber and rubber. It also summarized the state of paralysis of the global community with regard to taking meaningful action to stop climate change and the threat accelerating climate change has for global food security.

Finally, the Oxfam International (2011) report pointed out that previous population projections had been far too optimistic and that 2050 projections had been raised numerous times during the last decade by the United Nations (UN) Population Division. There is little capacity to convert remaining forest land to agricultural production, and what is converted threatens significant loss of the biodiversity that makes the planet inhabitable and accelerates climate change as large amounts of carbon stored in trees are released.

Countries such as China and Saudi Arabia are buying and leasing large tracts of farmland in Africa and elsewhere to feed their own populations as water tables at home are depleted. Combined with falling agricultural and family planning aid from debt-ridden Western countries, the prognosis for the 1.2 billion people living on less than $1 USD d−1 is potentially catastrophic.

The continued loss of biodiversity is summarized by the report (Oxfam International 2011). Biodiversity is not just critical to the maintenance of a healthy ecosystem. According to the Convention on Biological Diversity, an estimated 40% of the global economy and 80% of the needs of the poor are supported by biological resources. Millennium Development Goal 7 sought to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010 (United Nations 2000), but the Convention on Biological Diversity's ‘Global Biodiversity Outlook 3' found, on the whole, that there was ‘no indication of a significant reduction in the rate of decline in biodiversity' (SCBD 2010, p. 17). It warned (p. 5) that ‘the principal pressures leading to biodiversity loss are not just constant but are, in some cases, intensifying.' The report indicated that 42% of all amphibian species and 40% of bird species are declining in population. It concluded (p. 10) that ‘There is a high risk of dramatic biodiversity loss and accompanying degradation of a broad range of ecosystem services.'

Despite the authoritative warnings from the scientific community and blue ribbon panels, political leaders have managed to avoid dealing with the very serious threats to sustainability of the human population and the loss of the biodiversity that makes the planet inhabitable by all species.

This makes efforts like those of Vallentyne even more important in giving the scientific community ways to measure environmental impact of human activities and to help the general public prepare for the coming crises. Without political leadership, it will be up to each individual and community to find ways to achieve resilience in the coming decades. Whether that happens will depend on many factors, one of which is having a clear understanding of the situation we face.

The Pig in the XL Pipeline; Insider Reveals Concealed "Error" in Pipeline Safety Equipment That Could Blow Away the GOP's XL Pipe Dream

A 'PIG' is a robot Pipeline Inspection Gauge, required by Federal law, that passes through oil and gas lines. It has a GPS and it beeps as it rolls through, electronically squealing when it finds a problem.

But a whistleblower has come forth to reveal that the PIG's software engineers on the XL Keystone Pipeline project were told to calibrate it to ignore or minimize deadly problems. And when the whistleblower's team found the life-threatening flaw in the program, they immediately created a software patch to fix it. But then their supervisor ordered them to bury the fix and conceal the problem from regulators.

The flaw allows cracks, leaks and corrosion to go undetected - and that saves the industry billions of dollars in pipe replacements. But pipes with cracks and leaks can explode - and kill.

Recently, President Obama refused to issue a permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline, but invited its owner, Trans-Canada, to re-apply. The GOP claims that that slowing the Canada-to-Houston pipe for a full safety review is a jobs killer.

But it's the Pipeline that's the killer. On September 9, 2010, a gas pipeline exploded, incinerating 13-year-old Janessa Greig, her mom and six others. An untampered PIG would have caught the bad welds in the old pipe.

Trans-Canada says that Keystone XL won't contaminate the Ogallala Aquifer, the Plains states' crucial water source. Keystone's permit application boasts that we can rely on XL's "full pigging capability."

Last summer, an ExxonMobil pipeline burst and poisoned parts of the Yellowstone River - only months after a PIG had been installed.

New gas fields opened by hydraulic fracking will require over 100,000 miles of new transmission pipe.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, Unmet Need for Contraception and Unsafe Abortion Are Widespread

On the 39th anniversary of Roe v. Wade, a landmark ruling from the United States Supreme Court that legalized abortion and changed the course of history for women in the U.S., we remember that women in Latin America and the Caribbean continue to struggle for this basic reproductive right.

95% of abortions in Latin America are unsafe, according to the Guttmacher Institute. Where abortion is illegal, women often turn to inadequately trained practitioners who employ unsafe techniques or attempt to self-induce abortion using dangerous methods. In Latin America and the Caribbean, complications from unsafe abortion results in the hospitalization of nearly one million women each year, and causes one in eight maternal deaths, according to the WHO. Poor and rural women are disproportionately affected.

Obtaining a safe abortions is difficult if there is fear of legal consequences, social stigma, high cost, or lack of access to trained health professionals. Banning abortion does not reduce the numbers of women who attempt it; in fact, the abortion rate is much higher where it is illegal.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, only 6 of the 34 countries -- accounting for less than 5% of the region's women ages 15-44 -- allow abortion without restriction.

In 2007 the Mexico City government lifted the ban on abortion during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy. There MEXFAM (IPPF/WHR) provides safe abortion services. Where the law is more restrictive, MEXFAM works to reduce the public health impact of unsafe abortion.

Nearly half of sexually active young women in Latin America and the Caribbean have an unmet need for contraception. Providing contraception will not only reduce the number of unplanned pregnancies, and the number of abortions, but also empower women by giving them the freedom to choose when and if they have children.

Food for 9 Billion

"Food for 9 Billion" is a yearlong examination of the challenge of feeding the world at a time of growing demand, changing diets, rising food and energy prices, shrinking land and water resources, and accelerating climate change. It is a collaborative project of the Center for Investigative Reporting, Homelands Productions, PBS NEWSHOUR and American Public Media's Marketplace

Interactive Map: World Food Stats: http://centerforinvestigativereporting.org/node/4916

Timeline: Food Through the Ages: http://centerforinvestigativereporting.org/node/4917

World Must Wake Up to the Coming Crisis in the Sahel

There is a zone of human pain in the failed, and failing states along the Sahel on the edge of the Sahara desert, and across to Somalia, Yemen and Afghanistan, says Professor Malcolm Potts.

Rapid population growth, global warming, poor governance and a hideous mistreatment of women are combining in a perfect storm which could lead to unprecedented levels of environmental stress, starvation, escalating conflict and massive waves of migration. The scale of these problems goes beyond the usual response to a potential humanitarian disaster. Unless strong action is taken, the catastrophe now unfolding in the Sahel has the potential to kill as many tens of millions of people.

This is a global problem and it needs a global understanding and a global response. New international strategies need to be built about food security, family planning, gender equity and governance that have major geopolitical implications for the rest of the twenty-first century. A proper response will require billions of dollars , which would likely come primarily from the World Bank, regional development banks and other traditional donors.

Today's extremes of drought, caused by climate change, could become averages by 2050. Overgrazing, poor agricultural practices, lack of infrastructure and uneven governance could result in inefficient use of natural resources including soil, water and ecosystem-based services. Soil erosion and destruction of trees for firewood are about to collide with climate change turning serious problems into a catastrophe.

From October to May there is no rain and temperatures can exceed 120° Fahrenheit (49° C). Tremendous dust storms cover huge areas of the Sahel and Northern Nigeria. Climate change will make a bad situation worse. Droughts that used to occur every 10 years are already happening every five and they will be interspersed with torrential downpours leading to flash floods that wash away homes and crops.

Already agricultural output cannot keep pace with population growth. The UN Environment Programme sees the Sahel as "heading towards an environmental disaster" and feeding tens of millions of people as "mission impossible."

44% of children in Niger are stunted and face a life-long penalty in stunted growth and inhibited brain development if they survive.

The third largest city in Kenya, after Nairobi and Mombasa is now a refugee camp of drought victims in the north. It was built for 400,000 refugees, but every day an additional 1,500 women and children, fleeing from drought in Somalia and Ethiopia, arrive.

The worst drought in 60 years is hitting the Horn of Africa; 13 million people are already hungry. "750,000 could die in the next six months unless aid efforts were scaled up" says the New York Times. But this is just a sign of things to come. We must recognize the nature and the scale of the problem and focus on outcomes not process.

50 million people live in the Sahel. In Niger population is projected by the UN to rise from 16 million today to almost 60 million or possibly even higher in 2050 and an implausible 139 million by 2100 million, implausible since death rates may rise due to starvation or disease.

Burkina Faso is projected to go from 16 to almost 50 million people by 2050, Chad from 11 to almost 30 million. Mali is projected to more than double from 15 to 35 million and Somalia from under 10 to over 20 million.

Until recently, the UN's World Population estimates assumed that most countries would reach 2.05 children per women by 2050, and that least developed countries would fall to 2.41, but demographers have recently accepted that birth rates in the high fertility countries will not reach replacement level fertility any time soon. The highest world projection for the end of the century is now 15.8 billion ( the lowest 6.2 million) at the century's end. These few high fertility countries (averaging from 4 to over 7 children per woman) with a total population of 1.2 billion today, are projected to be the largest population block in the world by 2100.

Delay in raising the age of marriage and in instituting family planning will be as lethal in a country like Niger, as was the delay in instituting HIV prevention in Africa in the 1980s. Today in Niger, only one in 1000 women completes secondary education. In the Sahlel, few people are educated, making non-agricultural employment virtually impossible. Few girls enter secondary school and virtually none complete it.

Unless investments are made today in education, especially for girls, and in family planning in these high fertility regions then the world will become even more divided than it is today between rich and poor and between stable democratic nations and failed states. The Sahel presents the most immediate, and also the most easy to document, set of problems.

We must make family planning easy to obtain. In the case of family planning we have half a century of robust evidence of what works. We must meet the unmet need for family planning. Even failed states have markets than can be tapped into. We must knock down uninformed medical barriers to family planning. We must recognize how common misinformation is leading women to believe family planning is dangerous.

In Cambodia after the fall of Pol Pot, in refugee camps along the Thai border, neither UNICEF nor Doctors Without Borders were supplying contraception in the camps. But when this was done by another NGO, use of contraceptives jumped from zero to 52% of married women in one month.

Sahlel countries see a very high rate of child marriage. Increasing the age of marriage by five years reduces population growth by 15 to 20%, according to demographers. High fertility countries will not slow population growth rate until the average age of the first birth is raised. In Niger, the average age of marriage is under 16.

Under-age girls are married off to older men every day. Most child brides either never go to school, or drop out when they marry. Compared with mature women, these girls are twice as likely to be beaten by their husbands and five times as likely to die in childbirth.

Poor soils and unpredictable weather are outside human control. We don't know how to ameliorate corruption in contemporary governments. Subsidies to American farmers depress African markets unfairly, but they are unlikely to change soon. But addressing population through access to family planning, eliminating forced marriage for young girls and raising the age of the first birth have more promising solutions.

In a project involving a polygamous society on the border with Niger, where the average aged of marriage is 14.5, we found that a small educational grant of $196, spread over six years, had resulted in between 82% and 92% of girls remaining in school.

We need to apply funds to pilot projects, such as the success keeping girls in school, on a nation-wide scale. We may need careful, random control trials to show that cash transfers work.

Food for 9 Billion: Turning the Population Tide in the Philippines

This story also appeared on PBS NEWSHOUR. A related story can be found on American Public Media's Marketplace.

Fishing villages near the Danajon Double Barrier Reef off of Bohol Island in the southern Philippines are embracing birth control for the first time, not just as a means to plan their families but as a path to long-term food security, ensuring that future generations enjoy the same abundance of fish. The area is one of the richest marine biodiversity hot spots in the world. More than a million people depend on these fishing grounds for their main source of protein and livelihoods. As the population of this area has nearly tripled in the last three decades, the effect on the reef has been devastating.

Illegal fishing has become rampant. Many use dynamite or cyanide, indiscriminately killing everything within their reach.

The shift to smaller families in the rural fishing village Humayhumay is already paying dividends. Fishermen have created a marine preserve to help revive fish stocks. With smaller families, thinking about future generations is a luxury fishermen can afford.

Every year the Philippines, now with 100 million people, adds about 2 million more mouths to feed and isn't expected to stabilize its population until 2080, at 200 million. The country is already beyond its carrying capacity.

Jason Bostero: Family planning is helpful because if you control the number of your children, you don't need as many fish to support your family. If you have many children, it's difficult to support them." .. "My income is just right to feed us three times a day. It's really, really different when you have a small family."

Crisna Bostero: "In my case, we were really hard up before. Sometimes, we would only eat once a day because we were so poor. We couldn't go to school. I did not finish my school because there were just so many of us."

A community-based family planning programs has made birth control options like the pill accessible and affordable - at about 70 cents a month. Distributors are able to sell pills and condoms anytime. They are as easy as buying soft drinks or matches.

PATH Foundation Philippines, a group funded mostly through USAID, has made this possible, placing its emphasis on local partners and bringing access to the people. In just six years since the program was first established here, family sizes have dropped from as many as 12 children to a maximum of about four today.

The program shows how closely tied family planning is with environmental conservation and putting food on the table.

Jason and Crisna Bostero, both practicing Catholics, don't see a conflict between their religious beliefs and family planning. For them, it's about something much more immediate, like what kind of future they're going to pass on to their two children. " I don't want them to be like us, just to fish the sea, just to farm the land. This is not an easy way to earn a living."

Outside of Humayhumay, where birth control remains largely out of reach, the struggle to put food on the table from one day to the next dominates life. People have to collect government assistance checks for food.

Countries like Thailand and Indonesia have largely avoided this scene, thanks to state-sponsored family planning programs. But Congressman Walden Bello says in the Philippines, any efforts to do the same have faced stiff resistance.

The country is 80% Catholic and the Catholic church leadership opposes any form of artificial contraception and has rallied for a decade against a reproductive health bill in Congress that would guarantee universal access to birth control. Recently, it even threatened the president with excommunication for supporting the bill.

Filipino Archbishop Emeritus Oscar Cruz says "if you have more mouths to feed, then produce more food to eat! Not the other way around."

But trying to produce more food tests the limits of ecosystems, both on land and sea. Today, the Philippines imports more rice than any other nation on the planet. And according to the World Bank, every major species of fish here shows signs of severe overfishing.

Technological advances to boost the food supply have not kept pace with the Philippine's surging population growth.

More than half of all pregnancies in the Philippines are unintended, according to the Guttmacher Instititute.

The future of the people in the Philippines could easily be overwhelmed by outside forces, in a world that's projected to have 9 billion mouths to feed by the middle of the century.

Poor Teens Lack Access to Emergency Contraception

Low-income communities have the highest teen pregnancy rates in the U.S., yet researchers from Boston Medical Center found that pharmacists in poorer areas were more often misinformed about the law and mistakenly were denying 17-year-old girls access to Plan-B. The study was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Plan B, or levonorgestrel, prevents a fertilized egg from attaching to the wall of the uterus, if taken within 72 hours of unprotected sex. The drug, unlike RU-486, cannot be used to terminate a pregnancy.

In 2006, Plan B became available for purchase by adults in the U.S. without a prescription. In 2009, the age at which Plan B could be dispensed without a prescription was lowered to age 17.

"There is a lot of misinformation about emergency contraception," said senior auther Dr. Tracey Wilkinson, a pediatrician at Boston Medical Center. Box labels on the contraception -- as well as the advertising -- may not be clear, and may be contributing to the problem.

In the study, graduate assistants posed as 17-year-old adolescents and called over 900 pharmacies throughout the U.S. to see if pharmacists would dispense the morning-after pill to teens. 19% of all pharmacists and 23.7% of pharmacists in low-income neighborhoods, said they could not obtain the pill under any circumstance.

Given the controversy surrounding the drug, and the changes in the rules and guidelines surrounding access, it's "not really surprising that it permeates everywhere," Wilkinson said.

Whatever the reason for the misinformation, whether it's a problem with staff education in the pharmacies, high turnover, the relative rarity of teens asking for the drug, she said, "at the end of the day, it puts adolescents in poor neighborhoods at a disadvantage," she said.

Another problem is that a 17-year-old may be asked to prove she is 17 and she may not have a license since she isn't driving.

Susan Wood, director of the Jacobs Institute of Women's Health said emergency contraceptives should be compared to and accessible as condoms, tampons and pregnancy tests.

Even though the maker of Plan B received approval from the FDA to sell Plan B over the counter, which would make it available to all consumers regardless of age andsafety studies that show that women of all ages can take the drug safely and effectively, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services defied the FDA and prevented the drug from becoming available for sale over the counter in December.